DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough off the West Coast and another moving through eastern Canada. A ridge has taken back over the middle of the continent and will be quite strong through the weekend. The western trough will send energy into the ridge this weekend and next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Models disagree about how successful that trough will be at pushing the ridge down, especially with a piece of energy late next week and weekend, though they do suggest that part of the ridge will be reduced.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement through the middle of next week, but disagree on a trough moving through late next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS as it has remained consistent.

A front will be stalled across the middle of the country early next week where an additional system will move along it could produce some significant precipitation. Temperatures east of the front will be well above normal while those west of it will be below normal. The front may get pushed eastward later next week and weekend, though that is uncertain.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...103 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW WED...15 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...BURLINGTON, VT 1.52 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough off the West Coast and another moving through eastern Canada. A ridge has taken back over the middle of the continent and will be quite strong through the weekend. The western trough will send energy into the ridge this weekend and next week. Models disagree about how successful that trough will be at pushing the ridge down, especially with a piece of energy late next week and weekend, though they do suggest that part of the ridge will be reduced.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement through the middle of next week, but disagree on a trough moving through late next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS as it has remained consistent.

A front will be stalled across the middle of the country early next week where an additional system will move along it could produce some significant precipitation. Temperatures east of the front will be well above normal while those west of it will be below normal. The front may get pushed eastward later next week and weekend, though that is uncertain.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures are rising in the region after a couple of chilly days. A system will move through this weekend and could produce some areas of heavy rain and minor snow accumulations in Montana. We will have to see if another system can form in the region in the middle of next week as well. Drier conditions until then could allow for some significant harvest progress.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Showers earlier this week may have slowed down harvest progress in some areas, but those with winter wheat likely found the rain favorable. We could see a few spotty showers into the weekend, but drier conditions are likely, benefiting harvest. A system will send a cold front into the region this weekend that may stick around into next week with scattered showers.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavier rain earlier this week likely disrupted harvest a big, but also improved drought conditions and brought water into the Mississippi River system for transportation. A few showers may be possible Thursday and Friday, but drier weather should promote harvest. Another front is forecast to move into the region Sunday and Monday and will likely stall into next week, which could mean more rain for some areas, especially west.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Showers that moved through earlier this week caused drought reduction in some areas while heavy rain in the Ohio Valley will likely provide a boost to water levels on the Mississippi River into next week, at least to some degree. That will likely be brief, however, as drier weather is in place now through most of next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front in the south has been producing showers this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has been much drier over the last two weeks, which has been unfavorable for soybean establishment after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. However, showers are starting to fill in across the region and are forecast to be widespread starting on Friday and continuing thereafter.

That should be supportive of soybeans going forward.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Most areas have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment. Soybean planting will increase later in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius. Another system is forecast to go through this weekend with widespread rainfall. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are favorable thus far.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been consistent in eastern Europe, especially the southeast over the last week. A small disturbance is also producing showers for parts of Spain over the next few days as well, which are sorely needed there for winter wheat establishment. Another system will move into eastern areas this weekend with more showers that may continue into next week, also supportive of building soil moisture, while bringing a burst of colder air that would not be.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system in southeastern Europe has been providing showers to western areas over the last week. However, many areas have seen little or no rainfall, especially in southwestern Russia, which is much drier. The system will spread rainfall throughout the region for the rest of the week and another settling in this weekend could continue those showers for at least some of next week. The region will take any and all rainfall that wishes to fall as drought continues to be extensive in much of the region, especially in the east.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The country is in a drier stretch of weather that continues this week. Some winter wheat and canola areas are struggling with dryness while others are fairing much better. The country would like more consistent rainfall as crops go more into reproductive and filling stages, but the forecast is not supportive of that. Instead, smaller areas of showers that are mostly below normal are in the forecast through next week and specifically in New South Wales as other states get drier.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather may slow down progress. Central China continues to see regular showers through next week, favorable for more winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday, above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday-Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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