DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...100 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX, 5 MILES SOUTH OF YUMA, AZ, AND 6 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF GLAMIS, CA

LOW TUE...14 AT LYMAN, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...LEXINGTON, KY 5.02 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough off the California coast and another moving through eastern Canada. A ridge is taking back over the middle of the continent and will be quite strong through the weekend. The Californian trough will send energy into the ridge this weekend and next week. Models disagree about how successful that trough will be at pushing the ridge down, especially with a piece of energy late next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement through the middle of next week, but disagree on a trough moving through late next week. I will use a blend but favor the European for now.

A front will get pushed into the middle of the country early next week where additional systems or disturbances moving along it could produce some significant rainfall. Temperatures east of the front will be well above normal while those west of it will be below normal. The front may get pushed eastward later next week, though that is uncertain.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures are rising in the region after a couple of chilly days. A system will move through this weekend and could produce some areas of heavy rain and minor snow accumulations in Montana. We will have to see if another system can form in the region in the middle of next week as well. Drier conditions until then could allow for some significant harvest progress.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front produced some areas of rain as it moved through over the past few days, that may have slowed down harvest progress in some areas, but those with winter wheat likely found the rain favorable. We could see a few spotty showers into the weekend, but drier conditions are likely, benefiting harvest. A system will send a cold front into the region this weekend that may stick around into next week with scattered showers.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought heavy rain to the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, disrupting harvest but improving drought conditions and bringing extra water into the Mississippi River system for transportation.

A few showers may be possible Thursday and Friday, but drier weather should promote harvest. Another front is forecast to move into the region Sunday and Monday and will likely stall into next week, which could mean more rain for some areas.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Showers that moved through on Monday caused drought reduction in some areas while heavy rain in the Ohio Valley will likely provide a boost to water levels on the Mississippi River into next week, at least to some degree. That will likely be brief, however, as drier weather is in place now through next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front in the south has been producing showers this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has been much drier over the last two weeks, unfavorable for soybean establishment after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region.

Seeds that have been planted have been at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent. Models have been consistent this week, suggesting that rainfall will fill in and be more typical of wet season rainfall starting on Friday and continuing thereafter. That should be supportive of soybeans going forward.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Most areas have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment. Soybean planting will increase later in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius. Another system is forecast to go through this weekend with widespread rainfall. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are favorable thus far.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been consistent in eastern Europe, especially the southeast over the last week. A small disturbance may produce showers for parts of Spain over the next few days as well, which are sorely needed there for winter wheat establishment. Another system will move into eastern areas this weekend with more showers that may continue into next week, also supportive of building soil moisture, while bringing a burst of colder air that would not be.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system in southeastern Europe has been providing showers to western areas over the last week. However, many areas have seen little or no rainfall, especially in southwestern Russia, which is much drier. The system will spread rainfall throughout the region for the rest of the week and another settling in this weekend could continue those showers for at least some of next week. The region will take any and all rainfall that wishes to fall as drought continues to be extensive in much of the region, especially in the east.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The country is in a drier stretch of weather that continues this week. Some winter wheat and canola areas are struggling with dryness while others are fairing much better. The country would like more consistent rainfall as crops go more into reproductive and filling stages, but the forecast is not supportive of that. Instead, smaller areas of showers that are mostly below normal are in the forecast through next week.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather may slow down progress. Central China continues to see regular showers through next week, favorable for more winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Thursday, near normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal north and well above normal south.

Forecast: Spotty showers through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers northwest. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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