Ag Weather Forum

The early days of October find a well-supplied soil moisture profile in the top hard red winter wheat-producing state of Kansas. Analysis from the NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite-based soil moisture analysis project places almost all central and western Kansas in the 70 to 98 percentile for root zone wetness. (The root zone is defined as the top 1 meter of soil.) These values indicate plenty of soil moisture for the early stages of the 2025-26 winter wheat crop.

A look back at September rainfall in Kansas shows some generous amounts. Eastern Kansas had totals of 2 to 4 inches. Northwestern Kansas measured rainfall of 1 to 2 inches. Southwestern stations tallied mostly over 4 inches. And in central and southern Kansas, totals exceeded 5 inches in several locations, topped by 6.47 inches for the month at the Lorraine, Kansas, Mesonet site. (Lorraine is in Ellsworth County.) Those totals were mostly from 200% to 300% of normal in central and western Kansas.

What caused this favorable downpour total? DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said the general atmospheric flow pattern around high pressure over the northeastern U.S. allowed conditions to set up for the September rainfall.

"The eastern half of the country saw a fairly regular ridge that kept that part of the country rather dry, while a trough in the west kept sending energy into it, which caused the showers and thunderstorms to develop in the Plains," Baranick said. "One interesting feature was a very slow-moving storm system that moved through the region late in the month. It brought almost daily rainfall somewhere in the region over the course of about 10 days and accounted for roughly half or slightly more of the monthly totals."

Another interesting note about September in Kansas is that some locations had an ongoing run of at least 4 inches of rain for the month. Dodge City, for example, had monthly rainfall topping 4 inches in June, July, August and September. Its total of 17.36 inches for those four months is 10.67 inches greater than the normal 6.69 inches for this stretch, or 260% of normal.

This run of beneficial rainfall is also noteworthy when looking at the forecast for the balance of 2025 in the Southern Plains. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center expects Oklahoma and Texas to have drought conditions develop during the rest of this fall into winter. Kansas, on the other hand, does not have drought in the CPC outlook. Many times, these three Southern Plains states are grouped together when drought prospects are considered. But not this time; yet one more indication of the impact of the well-above-normal rainfall to end the summer and start the autumn in the top hard red winter wheat-production state of Kansas.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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