Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Favorable harvest weather in the Central U.S., dryness in central Brazil, and showers across Argentina, southern Brazil, and parts of Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

DRIER CONDITIONS PROMOTING HARVEST IN THE MIDWEST

Warm and dry conditions continue in the Midwest for the next few days, favoring fieldwork. A front will try to produce showers as it gets into the region over the weekend, with slightly better chances for widespread showers early next week. Rainfall could be disruptive to maturing crops and harvest.

MOSTLY DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warm and largely dry conditions continue in most of the Central and Southern Plains for the next few days, favorable for fieldwork of all kinds. A front will move into the region over the weekend and may produce showers into early next week. Any rainfall would not be favorable for harvest, but would keep soil moisture fairly high for winter wheat planting and establishment.

NORTHERN PLAINS GETTING SOME SHOWERS

A weak front has moved into the Northern Plains and may produce some showers for the next couple of days. Better chances exist over the weekend, though. Any rainfall is likely to be disruptive to the harvest and not favorable for even immature crops.

DELTA DRYING OUT AGAIN

Warm and dry weather is favorable for harvest in the Delta, but not for the river systems, which are drying back out again after getting a nice bump from last week's rainfall. Largely drier conditions would cause transportation issues for much of the fall season.

DRIER WEATHER IN CENTRAL BRAZIL CONCERNING

A front will continue to produce rainfall in southern Brazil over the next several days, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil is much drier and only spotty showers are in the forecast through next week, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent, which looks to occur in mid-October.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

A front continues over far northern Argentina with showers over the next couple of days. Most areas have good soil moisture for early planting and establishment. Another front moving through this weekend should produce more widespread rainfall. Soybean planting may begin this week, but most areas will wait for significant planting later on in October.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN EUROPE

Isolated showers continue over eastern Europe for the next few days, particularly in the Balkans which need rain. Another system is forecast to move into the west on Friday with strong winds and widespread rainfall, which will spread through most of the continent this weekend into early next week. Spain is forecast to be left out, which could use more rain.

RAIN FOR WESTERN BLACK SEA REGION

A system moving through southeastern Europe is producing more widespread rainfall in Ukraine. Some areas remain very dry though for winter wheat planting and establishment, especially in southwestern Russia. Drier weather is likely for next week and beyond, which may mean only limited benefit from this week's rainfall.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Australia has gone into a drier stretch, which is somewhat troubling for winter wheat and canola going through their reproductive and fill stages. Some showers will go through southeastern areas over the next couple of days, but most of the country is dry this week. Western areas could see some beneficial rainfall this weekend, however.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China. Central China continues to see occasional showers this week, favorable for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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