DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with a trough off the West Coast.

The trough will move eastward into the West and sit there going into next week.

Another trough will move across Canada this weekend and early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will redevelop across Canada behind the trough but it may not last long. We could see another trough moving through Canada later next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will try to produce showers as it moves through the Central Plains and into the Midwest early next week. We could see another front moving down from Canada later next week with more widespread precipitation. Temperatures will generally be above normal for most areas, though the Plains may be colder behind the early-week front. We will have to see if colder air can build up behind the late-week front as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...99 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA, AND 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOPOCK, AZ

LOW TUE...28 AT 5 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HARTSEL, CO, 9 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CREEDE, CO, AND 7 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TOPONAS, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...BOISE, ID 0.68 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with a trough off the West Coast. The trough will move eastward into the West and sit there going into next week. Another trough will move across Canada this weekend and early next week. The ridge will redevelop across Canada behind the trough but it may not last long.

We could see another trough moving through Canada later next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will try to produce showers as it moves through the Central Plains and into the Midwest early next week. We could see another front moving down from Canada later next week with more widespread precipitation. Temperatures will generally be above normal for most areas, though the Plains may be colder behind the early-week front. We will have to see if colder air can build up behind the late-week front as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A weak front has moved into the region and may produce some showers for the next couple of days. Better chances exist over the weekend, though. Any rainfall is likely to be disruptive to the harvest and not favorable for even immature crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Warm and largely dry conditions continue in most areas for the next few days, favorable for fieldwork of all kinds. A front will move into the region over the weekend and may produce showers into early next week. Any rainfall would not be favorable for harvest, but would keep soil moisture fairly high for winter wheat planting and establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Warm and dry conditions continue for the next few days, favoring fieldwork. A front will try to produce showers as it gets into the region over the weekend, with slightly better chances for widespread showers early next week. Rainfall could be disruptive to maturing crops and harvest.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Warm and dry weather is favorable for harvest, but not for the river systems, which are drying back out again after getting a nice bump from last week's rainfall.

Largely drier conditions would cause transportation issues for much of the fall season.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front will continue to produce rainfall in southern Brazil over the next several days, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil is much drier and only spotty showers are in the forecast through next week, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent, which looks to occur in mid-October.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front continues over far northern areas with showers over the next couple of days. Most areas have good soil moisture for early planting and establishment. Another front moving through this weekend should produce more widespread rainfall. Soybean planting may begin this week, but most areas will wait for significant planting later on in October.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers continue over eastern areas of the continent for the next few days, particularly in the Balkans which need rain.

Another system is forecast to move into the west on Friday with strong winds and widespread rainfall, which will spread through most of the continent this weekend into early next week. Spain is forecast to be left out, which could use more rain.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moving through southeastern Europe is promoting more widespread rainfall in Ukraine. Some areas remain very dry though for winter wheat planting and establishment, especially in southwestern Russia. Drier weather is likely for next week and beyond, which may mean only limited benefit from this week's rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The country has gone into a drier stretch, which is somewhat troubling for winter wheat and canola going through their reproductive and fill stages. Some showers will go through southeastern areas over the next couple of days, but most of the country is dry this week. Western areas could see some beneficial rainfall this weekend, however.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China. Central China continues to see occasional showers this week, favorable for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday.

East: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Spotty showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers northwest through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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