Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Drier weather through the Central U.S., a potential tropical storm for the Southeast, and showers across Argentina, Brazil, and parts of Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

DRIER CONDITIONS PROMOTE HARVEST IN THE MIDWEST

Recent heavy rainfall has likely delayed harvest in the Midwest, but has improved drought conditions somewhat. Warmer and drier weather through most of next week will promote harvest.

DRIER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Recent rainfall has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest in the Central and Southern Plains, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions are likely now through most of next week, which should favor fieldwork.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Drier and warmer conditions are forecast through most of next week in the Northern Plains. Some showers may move through mid to late next week but are forecast to be isolated. Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

DELTA DRYING OUT AGAIN

Recent rain will help mitigate the expanding drought in the Delta and promote a small bump on the Mississippi River. However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions that should continue through next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading through October.

SOUTHEAST PREPARING FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL STORM NEXT WEEK

A front is stalling out in the Southeast and will produce areas of rain through the weekend, some of which may be heavy. But the region is bracing for a tropical disturbance that is likely to be named Imelda over the weekend in the Bahamas. The forecast track is highly uncertain with this system, but it could bring massive amounts of rain to the Carolinas and surrounding areas if it stalls out as forecast by some models.

CENTRAL BRAZIL ONLY SEEING SPOTTY RAIN

A stalled front produced widespread rainfall sufficient to start planting in many areas of central Brazil. However, rainfall through next week is forecast to be very spotty. Producers may still choose to wait for showers to be more consistent in October to get a start on soybean planting to ensure good germination and early growth with more limited risk of drying out too quickly. Meanwhile, southern areas will get a couple more rounds of rainfall this weekend and next week and remain in good condition for widespread planting and early growth.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

Soil conditions continue to be very favorable in Argentina for corn planting and producers have the green light in which to do so. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with more widespread rainfall that should be beneficial. Soybean planting will begin in October.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EUROPE

A system continues to spread showers across southern Europe for the next few days. Drier weather is forecast for most areas next week. Spain has had more limited rainfall and could use more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. The remnants of Hurricane Gabrielle are expected to move through Spain this weekend or early next week with scattered showers.

RAINFALL FORECAST INCREASING FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Though a few fronts will move through over the next week, they are not forecast to produce much rainfall for eastern areas. The forecast has increased across western areas though. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for winter wheat planting and establishment in southwestern Russia and eastern Ukraine, though conditions are good for fieldwork.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of Australia. Much drier conditions are forecast through next week, with only limited showers for far southeastern areas.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

As harvest continues to expand, drier conditions in northeast China are continuing to be favorable for producers there. Those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola, with mostly favorable conditions there.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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