USDA Reports Preview

At 11 a.m. CDT on Tuesday, Sept. 30, USDA will release updated estimates of grain stocks held as of Sept. 1, as well as take another look at 2025 wheat production in its annual Small Grains Summary.

SEPT. 1 GRAIN STOCKS

Corn

With a record corn crop estimated to be just around the corner in 2025, every bushel of demand and carryover stocks from the old-crop 2024-25 season is certainly going to count. To briefly recap, on June 30, USDA estimated that as of June 1, there was 4.64 billion bushels (bb) of corn stocks held between producers and other businesses, implying a disappearance of over 12 bb through three quarters of the marketing year, a record-setting demand pace.

For Tuesday's report, the average trade estimate, according to 16 firms surveyed by Dow Jones, is for Sept. 1 stocks to reflect 1.336 bb of corn to be carried into the new season, which began on that date. This would be the lowest corn carryover stocks in four years, if accurate, and would also imply the strongest fourth-quarter corn disappearance on record. I am personally estimating stocks to be slightly higher than the average guess on the Dow Jones survey, at 1.390 bb of stocks, primarily driven by less feed and food usage. However, given the difficulty in forecasting residual usage, I wouldn't be surprised if Sept. 1 stocks were estimated close to the Dow Jones estimate as well as USDA's September WASDE estimate of 1.325 bb.

Soybeans

The June 1 USDA estimate of soybean stocks on hand was a bit of a bearish surprise when it showed over 1 bb still sitting in inventories across the U.S., the highest June 1 holdings in five years. I believed that up to that point, the demand clues for soybeans driven by record crush and a respectable export program had pointed to smaller stockpiles through three quarters. However, at that point, USDA was still estimating 2024-25 ending stocks to be the highest in five years, as well, but have since lowered that estimate to slightly below last year's amount.

Either way, fourth-quarter demand would need to answer the bell to draw stocks down to USDA's current estimate of 330 million bushels (mb) by Sept. 1, or to the average guess on the Dow Jones survey of 322 mb. In that sense, I believe demand was successful, as my estimate of 594 mb of crush through the final quarter would be a record. I am also estimating 200 mb were exported over the June-August period, the highest in three years for the quarter. Residual is always a wild card, but my estimates bring my balance sheet to a 320-mb carryout, in line with analyst expectations per the Dow Jones survey.

Wheat

Tuesday's Sept. 1 wheat stocks estimates will work hand in hand with the findings of the Small Grains Summary (discussed in higher detail below), in fine-tuning the volume of beginning wheat supplies for the 2025-26 marketing year, which began on June 1.

For Tuesday, analysts are expecting wheat stocks on hand through the first quarter of the marketing year to be 2.041 bb, on average. This would be 2.5% higher than at the same point in 2024 due to larger carry-in stocks as of June 1 and a wheat production estimate only marginally less than that what was achieved in 2024. Using the September WASDE reports supply estimates (taking imports up front), this would imply the highest first-quarter disappearance of wheat in nine years. Again, this is highly dependent on where USDA finalizes production. And if opening supplies are found to be less than the September WASDE, then less usage through the first quarter would be reasonable to expect as well.

The demand for wheat is led by an impressive export program thus far, with shipments through Sept. 18 running 16% ahead of the same period in 2024. With DTN's National Hard Red Wheat Index of $4.35 (as of Sept. 25) down 17% from a year ago, the attractiveness of U.S. wheat prices to both domestic and world buyers should not be overlooked either in the expectations for strong demand through the marketing year.

SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY

The NASS Small Grains Summary report is based on a combination of objective yield surveys (based on test plot yield data) and producer agricultural yield surveys. USDA typically interviews roughly 50,000 producers through the first two weeks of September to compile its findings. The survey focuses on wheat, barley and oat production in the United States.

For Tuesday, the average wheat production estimated among the firms surveyed by Dow Jones is 1.925 bb. That would be in line with USDA's findings in its August and September WASDE reports, just a touch lower, and slightly lower than 2024 wheat production as well.

Looking across the different wheat varieties, the results are mixed as to increases and decreases from 2024. Hard red winter wheat production is estimated to have been 768 mb, down less than 1% from 2024, while spring wheat production of 484 mb would be down 11% from 2024, consistent with lower yields in the northwest U.S. and lower acreage year over year as well. The remaining categories: soft red winter, white winter and durum are all expected to show increased production from 2024, which is working to keep the total wheat production decline from 2024 at a minimal 2.3%.

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Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, Sept. 30, as we take a deeper look into USDA's recent estimates and what they could mean for markets moving forward. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Tuesday's September Stocks and Small Grains Summary report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

QUARTERLY STOCKS (million bushels)
	9/1/25	Avg	High	Low	6/1/25	9/1/24
Corn		1,336	1,450	1,260	4,644	1,763
Soybeans		322	347	295	1,008	342
Wheat		2,041	2,090	1,954	851	1,992
U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2025-26
	Sep	Avg	High	Low	Aug	2024-25
All Wheat		1,925	1,970	1,898	1,927	1,971
Winter		1,343	1,375	1,245	1,355	1,349
HRW		768	781	758	769	770
SRW		349	475	335	339	342
White		256	368	235	247	236
Other Spring		484	506	470	484	542
Durum		85	89	79	87	80

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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