DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central U.S. A trough is settling into the Southeast where it will remain into next week, which will influence a tropical disturbance moving through the Bahamas into next week. Another trough in the Gulf of Alaska will send some energy eastward, mostly through Canada, with one piece moving through this weekend and another moving through later next week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Though the ridge will shift around, it is still forecast to be a dominant feature going through early October.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A tropical storm is likely to be somewhere near the Carolinas early next week, though there is still significant uncertainty in the track. It will not be moving much, so where it sits will see a lot of rain. We will probably see a system move through the Northern Plains and Canada late next week, but rainfall is forecast to be scattered and brief as its cold front pushes across the U.S. into the weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal for most of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...108 AT 4 MILES SOUTH OF TOLLESON, AZ, 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOPOCK, AZ, AND GILA BEND, AZ

LOW THU...20 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...ALBANY, NY 3.36 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central U.S. A trough is settling into the Southeast where it will remain into next week, which will influence a tropical disturbance moving through the Bahamas into next week. Another trough in the Gulf of Alaska will send some energy eastward, mostly through Canada, with one piece moving through this weekend and another moving through later next week and weekend. Though the ridge will shift around, it will still be a dominant feature going through early October.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A tropical storm is likely to be somewhere near the Carolinas early next week, though there is still significant uncertainty in the track. It will not be moving much, so where it sits will see a lot of rain. We will probably see a system move through the Northern Plains and Canada late next week, but rainfall is forecast to be scattered and brief as its cold front pushes across the U.S.

into the weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal for most of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier and warmer conditions are forecast for the rest of this week and much of next week as well. Some showers may move through mid-late next week, but are forecast to be isolated.

Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Recent rainfall has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions are likely now through most of next week, which should favor fieldwork.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent heavy rainfall has likely delayed harvest, but has improved drought conditions somewhat. Warmer and drier weather through most of next week will promote harvest.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Recent rain will help mitigate the expanding drought and promote a small bump on the Mississippi River. However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions that should continue through next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading through October.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A stalled front produced widespread rainfall sufficient to start planting in many areas of central Brazil. However, rainfall through next week is forecast to be very spotty. Producers may still choose to wait for showers to be more consistent in October to get a start on soybean planting to ensure good germination and early growth with more limited risk of drying out too quickly. Meanwhile, southern areas will get a couple more rounds of rainfall this weekend and next week and remain in good condition for widespread planting and early growth.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Soil conditions continue to be very favorable for corn planting and producers have the green light in which to do so. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with more widespread rainfall that should be beneficial. Soybean planting will begin in October.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system continues to spread showers across the southern end of the continent for the next few days. Drier weather is forecast for most areas next week. Spain has had more limited rainfall and could use more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. The remnants of Hurricane Gabrielle are expected to move through Spain this weekend or early next week with scattered showers.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though a few fronts will move through next week, they are not forecast to produce much rainfall for eastern areas. The forecast has increased across western areas though. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for winter wheat planting and establishment in southwestern Russia and eastern Ukraine, though conditions are good for fieldwork.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of the country. Much drier conditions are forecast through next week, with only limited showers for far southeastern areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): As harvest continues to expand, drier conditions in the northeast are continuing to be favorable for producers there. Those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola, with mostly favorable conditions there.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers east. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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