DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in eastern Canada with another in the West. A trough is drifting through the Central U.S. and will get pushed to the Southeast by the weekend as the western ridge expands into the middle of the continent.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough developing in the Gulf of Alaska will send some energy eastward, mostly through Canada to end September and start October as the central ridge largely stays intact.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A tropical system may approach the Southeast early next week where rain could be heavy, models are still unsure of its development and track. But the vast majority of the country will be drier through much of next week. We will probably see a system move through the Northern Plains and Canada late next week, but rainfall is forecast to be scattered and brief as its cold front pushes across the U.S. into the weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal for most of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...110 AT 4 MILES SOUTH OF TOLLESON, AZ

LOW WED...19 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE ROCK, AR 2.49 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in eastern Canada with another in the West. A trough is drifting through the Central U.S. and will get pushed to the Southeast by the weekend as the western ridge expands into the middle of the continent. Another trough developing in the Gulf of Alaska will send some energy eastward, mostly through Canada to end September and start October as the central ridge largely stays intact.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A tropical system may approach the Southeast early next week where rain could be heavy, models are still unsure of its development and track. But the vast majority of the country will be drier through much of next week. We will probably see a system move through the Northern Plains and Canada late next week, but rainfall is forecast to be scattered and brief as its cold front pushes across the U.S. into the weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal for most of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier and warmer conditions are forecast for the rest of this week and much of next week as well. Some showers may move through mid-late next week, but are forecast to be isolated.

Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Recent rainfall has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions are likely now through most of next week, which should favor fieldwork.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers are exiting the east on Thursday after being heavy in many areas this week. The recent rainfall is likely to delay harvest, but should improve drought conditions somewhat. Drier weather that follows for the weekend and most of next week will promote harvest.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers are exiting to the south early on Thursday. The recent rain will help mitigate the expanding drought and promote a small bump on the Mississippi River. However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions expected to end the week that should continue next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading into October.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front remains stalled from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais on Thursday before it fizzles out. It has already produced widespread rainfall sufficient to start planting in many areas.

However, forecast rainfall afterward is very isolated or non-existent in central Brazil. Producers may still choose to wait for showers to be more consistent in October to get a start on soybean planting to secure good germination and early growth with more limited risk of drying out too quickly.

Meanwhile, southern areas will get a couple more rounds of rainfall this weekend and next week and remain in good condition for widespread planting.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Soil conditions continue to be very favorable for corn planting and producers have the green light in which to do so. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with more widespread rainfall that should be beneficial. Soybean planting will begin in October.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system continues to spread showers across the southern end of the continent for the next few days. Drier weather is forecast for most areas next week. Spain has had more limited rainfall and could use more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. There is some potential for the remnants of Hurricane Gabrielle to move through this weekend or early next week with potentially heavier rainfall.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though a few fronts will move through Thursday and next week, they are not forecast to produce much rainfall. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for winter wheat planting and establishment in southwestern Russia and eastern Ukraine, though conditions are good for fieldwork. Conditions are better in the western end of the region.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of the country. Much drier conditions are forecast this week and next week, with only limited showers for southeastern areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): As harvest continues to expand, drier conditions in the northeast are continuing to be favorable for producers there. Those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola, with mostly favorable conditions there.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

East: Isolated showers east Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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