DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada with another building in the West. A trough is drifting through the Central U.S. and will get pushed to the Southeast by the weekend as the western ridge expands into the middle of the continent.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will develop in the Gulf of Alaska over the next couple of days and send some energy eastward, mostly through Canada to end September and start October.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

We will also be watching for a couple of tropical systems that may approach the Southeast this weekend and next week where rain could be heavy. But the vast majority of the country will be drier through much of next week. We will probably see a system move through the Northern Plains and Canada late next week, but rainfall is forecast to be scattered and brief as its cold front pushes across the U.S. into the weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal for most of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...108 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA, AND DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...15 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...YOUNGSTOWN, OH 1.45 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada with another building in the West. A trough is drifting through the Central U.S. and will get pushed to the Southeast by the weekend as the western ridge expands into the middle of the continent. Another trough will develop in the Gulf of Alaska over the next couple of days and send some energy eastward, mostly through Canada to end September and start October.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

We will also be watching for a couple of tropical systems that may approach the Southeast this weekend and next week where rain could be heavy. But the vast majority of the country will be drier through much of next week. We will probably see a system move through the Northern Plains and Canada late next week, but rainfall is forecast to be scattered and brief as its cold front pushes across the U.S. into the weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal for most of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier and warmer conditions are forecast for the rest of this week and much of next week as well. Some showers may move through mid-late next week, but are forecast to be isolated.

Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Heavy rain moved into the region over the last couple of days and some showers continue on Wednesday before the system moves eastward. The recent rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions are likely to follow through most of next week, which should favor fieldwork.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue in the region through Thursday as a system moves through the south and east. The recent and forecast rainfall are likely to delay harvest, but should improve drought conditions somewhat. Drier weather that follows for the weekend and most of next week will promote harvest.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers have increased across the region and some areas of heavy rain have fallen across teh very dry north. Showers continue with a front moving through Wednesday into Thursday. That will help mitigate the expanding drought and promote a small bump on the Mississippi River, or at least stop its decline.

However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions expected to end the week that should continue next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading into October.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front remains stalled from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais through Thursday before it fizzles out. It has already produced widespread rainfall sufficient to start planting in some areas.

However, forecast rainfall afterward is fairly widespread across southern areas for next week, but very isolated or non-existent in central Brazil. Producers may still choose to wait for showers to be more consistent in October to get a start on soybean planting to secure good germination and early growth with more limited risk of drying out too quickly. Meanwhile, southern areas remain in good condition for widespread planting.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though some cooler temperatures moved in early this week, soil conditions continue to be very favorable for corn planting and producers have the green light in which to do so. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with more widespread rainfall that should be beneficial.

Soybean planting will begin in October.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system continues to spread showers across the southern end of the continent for the next few days. Drier weather is forecast for most areas next week. Spain has had more limited rainfall and could use more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. There is some potential for the remnants of Hurricane Gabrielle to move through this weekend or early next week with potentially heavier rainfall.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though a few fronts will move through later this week and next week, they are not forecast to produce much rainfall. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for winter wheat planting and establishment, though conditions are good for fieldwork.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of the country. Some cold air that moved in over the weekend may have had an impact on reproductive wheat and canola. Much drier conditions are forecast this week and next week, with only limited showers for southeastern areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. As harvest continues to expand, drier conditions in the northeast are continuing to be favorable for producers there. Those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday.

Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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