DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada. A trough is drifting underneath it through the U.S. throughout this week. A ridge will build over the West midweek and push the trough to the coast this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will develop in the Gulf of Alaska this week and send some energy eastward, mostly through Canada.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A leftover portion of a system moving through this week may get stuck in the Southeast where showers may continue into next week. We will also be watching for a couple of tropical systems that may approach the Southeast this weekend and next week. But the vast majority of the country will be drier through much of next week. Temperatures will remain largely above normal for most of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...107 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...24 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...EVANSVILLE, IN 1.90 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada. A trough is drifting underneath it through the U.S. throughout this week. A ridge will build over the West midweek and push the trough to the coast this weekend. Another trough will develop in the Gulf of Alaska this week and send some energy eastward, mostly through Canada.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A leftover portion of a system moving through this week may get stuck in the Southeast where showers may continue into next week. We will also be watching for a couple of tropical systems that may approach the Southeast this weekend and next week. But the vast majority of the country will be drier through much of next week. Temperatures will remain largely above normal for most of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier and warmer conditions are forecast for the rest of this week and likely next week as well. Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Heavy rain moved into the region late Monday with showers continuing through Wednesday before the system moves eastward. The recent rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions after Wednesday will be more favorable for harvest.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue in the region through Thursday as another system moves through. The showers are likely to delay harvest, but should improve drought conditions somewhat. Drier weather that follows for the weekend and next week will promote harvest.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers will increase as another system moves through the region Tuesday and Thursday, which could lead to some heavy amounts. That will help with the expanding drought and promote rises on the Mississippi River, or at least stop its decline. However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions expected to end the week that should continue next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading into October.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A strong cold front moved from southern Brazil into central Brazil on Monday and has stalled from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais for a few days before it fizzles out. In that time, scattered rainfall could add up to significant amounts that would technically be the start of the wet season. However, forecast rainfall afterward is fairly widespread across southern areas for next week, but very isolated or non-existent in central Brazil. Producers may still have to wait for showers to be more consistent to get a start on planting. Meanwhile, southern areas remain in good condition for widespread planting.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front moved through over the weekend with widespread rainfall for much of the country's growing areas. Cold air that moved in behind that front led to limited frosts across southeastern areas of the country, which may cause some damage to wheat and delay producers from planting corn. That is not a concern, but would push more corn into the late-planting window, subjecting more of the crop to potential harm from the developing La Nina. Soybean planting will begin in October.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved into western areas of the continent over the weekend, with heavy rain in France. That system will continue to spread showers eastward throughout the week, but primarily across the south.

Drier weather is forecast for most areas next week. Spain has had more limited rainfall and could use more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment.

There is some potential for the remnants of Hurricane Gabrielle to move through this weekend or early next week with potentially heavier rainfall.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system brought rainfall to some of the driest areas of the region last week, but this week remains much drier. The recent rain may help with winter wheat planting to some degree, but the region needs a lot more to get out of drought. Though a few fronts will move through later this week and next week, they are not forecast to produce much, if any, rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of the country. Some cold air that moved in over the weekend may be producing limited frosts in some southeastern areas through Tuesday morning, which may impact wheat and canola. Much drier conditions are forecast this week and next week, which could put some stress on reproductive crops.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. Those with corn and soybeans in the northeast got some drier weather over the last week, but a wave of showers moving through early this week will produce some nuisance weather. Those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers south Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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