DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada. A trough is drifting underneath it through the U.S. throughout this week. A ridge will build over the West midweek and push the trough off the coast this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will develop in the Gulf of Alaska this week and send some energy eastward next week, mostly through Canada.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will be moving off the East Coast this weekend, leaving much of the country dry through the middle of next week. We will have to watch for a potential tropical system on the East Coast, though. Temperatures will remain mostly above normal for most of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...105 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW SUN...22 AT EAST HAVEN, VT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...TULSA, OK 2.75 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada. A trough is drifting underneath it through the U.S. throughout this week. A ridge will build over the West midweek and push the trough off the coast this weekend. Another trough will develop in the Gulf of Alaska this week and send some energy eastward next week, mostly through Canada.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will be moving off the East Coast this weekend, leaving much of the country dry through the middle of next week. We will have to watch for a potential tropical system on the East Coast, though. Temperatures will remain mostly above normal for most of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers continued over the eastern Dakotas over the weekend. A few showers will move through western areas on Monday, but drier and warmer conditions are forecast for the rest of this week and likely next week as well. Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers and a few areas of heavy rain moved through over the weekend. Another system will move into the region on Monday with showers through Wednesday before the system moves eastward. The recent rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions afterward will be more favorable for harvest.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers became scattered over the weekend, leading to some areas of heavy rain. Showers continue on Monday and another system moves into the region late on Tuesday and continues the showers eastward through the end of the week. The showers are likely to delay harvest, but drier weather that follows for the weekend and next week will promote harvest.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers became a bit more scattered over the weekend. Scattered showers will increase as another system moves into the region midweek, which could lead to some heavy amounts. That will help with the quick-expanding drought and promote rises on the Mississippi River. However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions expected by Friday that continue next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading into October.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A strong cold front moved into southern Brazil late on Sunday. It will move into central Brazil on Monday and stall from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais for a few days before fizzling out. In that time, scattered rainfall could add up to significant amounts that would technically be the start of the wet season. However, forecast rainfall afterward is fairly widespread across southern areas for next week, but very isolated or non-existent in central Brazil. Producers may still have to wait for showers to be more consistent to get a quicker start on planting.

Meanwhile, southern areas remain in good condition for widespread planting.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front moved through over the weekend with widespread rainfall for much of the country's growing areas. Cold air is following behind that front and some limited frosts are forecast across southeastern areas of the region, which may cause some damage to wheat and delay producers from planting corn. Soybean planting will begin in October.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved into western areas of the continent over the weekend, with heavy rain in France. That system will continue to spread showers eastward throughout the week. Spain has had more limited rainfall and could use more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system brought rainfall to some of the driest areas of the region last week, but this week remains much drier. The recent rain may help with winter wheat planting to some degree, but the region needs a lot more to get out of drought. Though a few fronts will move through later this week and next week, they are not forecast to produce much, if any, rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of the country. Some cold air that moved in over the weekend may be producing limited frosts in southeastern areas over the next couple of mornings, which may impact wheat and canola. Much drier conditions are forecast this week, which could put some stress on reproductive crops.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. Those with corn and soybeans in the northeast got some drier weather over the last week, but will find a wave of showers moving through early this week. Those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Monday, south Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday, north Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near below normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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