Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Areas of heavy rainfall forecast for the Central U.S., showers across Argentina, Europe, and Australia, and the start to the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK

Isolated showers over western areas of the Midwest will spread eastward this weekend into early next week before leaving, but another system will take its place and continue showers for much of next week. With how slow-moving the systems and showers are, some areas could pick up heavy rain. Those showers will largely be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest, but could be beneficial for reducing drought, or at least its expansion, as well as getting some water into the Mississippi River system.

MORE RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Areas of showers and some heavy rain have been moving through the Central and Southern Plains with a slow-moving system over the last several days. That is pushing back the drydown of corn and soybeans. The system should push south and east out of the area this weekend, but another system will take its place early next week with showers lingering for several more days across the east. Rainfall in the southwest is favoring planting and establishment of winter wheat.

HEAVY RAIN MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain have been moving through the Northern Plains over the last several days. Showers will continue on Friday with a few more on Monday. The rain favors any immature corn and soybeans but make it too wet for some areas that are looking to mature and get harvest going. Drier conditions next week should be more favorable for that.

INCREASING DROUGHT IN LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BUT RAIN ON THE WAY

Only spotty showers have been falling in the Delta over the last couple of days as recent dryness continues to cause drought to develop and water levels to fall on the Mississippi River. A system will be slow to move across the Midwest into next week, and another system will quickly take its place next week, which will continue showers for many days. That should bring some needed rainfall into the region, as well as the Mississippi River system. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest is likely, though.

START OF WET SEASON LIKELY FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL NEXT WEEK

Spring planting is underway across southern Brazil, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. Some isolated showers will be possible across Mato Grosso through the weekend. A front that moves into the country this weekend and early next week should bring a swath of rain to much of the country, stalling from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais for a few days that will likely mean the start of the wet season rainfall. Producers may still wait until the rainfall becomes more consistent in October to start soybean planting there as it will likely be drier after the front fizzles out for multiple days.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA, BUT SOME COLD AIR

Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers in Argentina, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air will move in behind a stronger front early next week that may keep producers waiting. Scattered showers are likely ahead of it through the weekend in what continues to look like a favorable start to the planting season.

RECENT RAINFALL IN EUROPE LARGELY FAVORABLE, MORE NEXT WEEK

Recent rain has increased soil moisture for most of Europe over the last month, which had been favorable for filling summer crops and planting winter crops. A break this week has been more favorable for fieldwork. Southern stretches including Spain, Italy, and the southeast could use more rainfall. A system is forecast to move into the continent this weekend and slowly spread eastward next week, which may bring rainfall to those southern areas.

DESPITE SOME RAIN, DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

A system brought rainfall to some of the driest areas of the Black Sea region this week. That may help with winter wheat planting to some degree, but the region needs a lot more to get out of drought, and dryness is likely to follow after the system moves out, despite a couple of additional systems next week.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA SEEING A PICKUP IN RAINFALL, BUT ALSO FREEZING TEMPERATURES

Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of Australia. Another system is providing more rainfall to eastern areas on Friday. Some colder air will follow and there is a slight risk of frost, especially behind a stronger cold front this weekend for southeastern areas of the country. Should frost develop, that could be severely damaging to reproductive wheat and canola. Next week is forecast to be much drier.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. Those with corn and soybeans in the northeast are getting some drier weather while those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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