DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada. Troughs are located in several spots across the U.S. One of them will escape northeast through a weak spot in the Canadian ridge while another drifts eastward through the country throughout the week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge developing over the West late this week will likely push the trough out of the country next week. Meanwhile, there will be slight changes to the Canadian ridge, but it will largely be maintained, which keeps the cold air locked up in the Arctic.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but differ significantly in their precipitation forecasts for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A slow-moving system in the middle of the country this weekend will spread eastward through the country early next week. Temperatures will continue to be above normal through next week. Some cooler temperatures may start to move into the West late next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...108 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW SUN...18 AT 27 MILES SOUTH OF BONANZA, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...BISMARCK, ND 2.44 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada. Troughs are located in several spots across the U.S. One of them will escape northeast through a weak spot in the Canadian ridge while another drifts eastward through the country throughout the week and weekend. A ridge developing over the West late this week will likely push it out of the country next week. Meanwhile, there will be slight changes to the Canadian ridge, but it will largely be maintained, which keeps the cold air up in the Arctic.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but differ significantly in their precipitation forecasts for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A slow-moving system in the middle of the country this weekend will spread eastward through the country early next week. Temperatures will continue to be above normal through next week. Some cooler temperatures may start to move into the West late next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain moved through the region over the weekend while temperatures increased. Areas of showers will continue throughout the week. That will favor immature corn and soybeans, but make it too wet for some areas that are looking to mature and get harvest going.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Areas of showers moved through over the weekend. Some areas of heavy rain pushed back the drydown of corn and soybeans while other areas found the rainfall favorable. Rainfall in the southwest favored planting and establishment of winter wheat. Areas of showers will continue throughout the week and should push south and east out of the area this weekend.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures increased over the weekend. A streak of showers developed from central Minnesota arcing down through Indiana, but much of that rainfall is too late for being beneficial for corn and soybeans that are on the path to maturity and harvest. Isolated showers continue over western areas early-mid week. Those showers will increase late this week and spread eastward this weekend. Those showers will largely be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest, but could be beneficial for reducing drought, or at least its expansion, as well as getting some water into the Mississippi River system.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): It was largely hot and dry over the weekend, which caused water levels on the Mississippi River to continue falling. Very little precipitation for most of this week will continue that trend. A system will be slow to move across the Midwest later this week into next week, which may bring some more rainfall in the region, as well as the Mississippi River system.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Spring planting is underway across the south, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. A front moving through Sunday and Monday is producing some more rainfall for these areas, but should lose its rainfall as it moves northward. Some isolated showers will be possible across Mato Grosso, but the consistent wet season rainfall does not look to start early. A front that moves into the country this weekend and early next week could bring that necessary rainfall, but would only be a couple of days early. Producers may still wait until the rainfall becomes more consistent in October.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air may be possible behind a stronger front early next week that may keep producers waiting. Scattered showers are likely ahead of it in the middle of this week, with more showers for the weekend in what continues to look like a favorable start to the planting season.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Waves of rain have been increasing soil moisture for most of the continent over the last month, which had been favorable for filling summer crops and planting winter crops. A break would now be more favorable, which could happen for a lot of areas this week. Southern stretches including Spain, Italy, and the southeast could use more rainfall, though.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers fell across far western Ukraine over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry and fairly warm. While the warmth is fine, the region needs a lot of rainfall for planting winter wheat. A system will slowly move through the region this week and have increased its rainfall, but it does not look to provide a whole lot of needed rainfall. Dry weather is forecast afterward as well.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moved through western areas with some rainfall over the weekend and will move through eastern areas with needed rainfall early this week. Not all areas will receive the rainfall they need, but it will be welcome regardless. A system that only scrapes western areas midweek should provide more beneficial rainfall later this week to eastern areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China lately. Those with corn and soybeans would likely favor some drier weather while those in central China would like showers to continue as they plant winter wheat and canola. Most areas will get what they need this week with showers across central areas with drier conditions in the northeast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers west Friday.

Temperatures above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday, north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday, northwest Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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