DTN Early Word Livestock Comments

Cattle: Lower Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $290.05 -$3.18*

Hogs: Lower Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $119.14 -$1.60**

*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)

** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The fundamentals of the cattle market are overriding President Trump's statement on the implementation of his policies, which is expected to lower beef prices for consumers. That will not change the fundamentals of the market or increase cattle numbers anytime soon. Traders have digested the statement and viewed the market decline as a buying opportunity. Further cash cattle trade did not develop on Thursday as packers are holding bids at lower prices, and feedlots are hoping to get higher prices. However, the stage may have been set earlier in the week with some light cash cattle trade at $5.00 to $8.00 lower. Boxed beef prices have been showing weakness with lower prices in both categories on Thursday. Choice boxed beef declined $4.85, with select down $3.73. Export sales were lower than the previous week at 12,100 metric tons (mt).

Hog futures showed spread trading with the October, December, and February contracts higher and later contracts lower. Traders continue to support the market but remain cautious as strong pork demand needs to be consistent. Pork cutouts on Thursday declined $1.60, eliminating some of the gains seen this week. Cash was lower as the packers had purchased aggressively earlier in the week and are now finishing up their purchases without needing to be aggressive. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report was down $0.47. Weekly export sales were lower than the previous week at 17,300 mt, with China finally back into the market as a top buyer. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 93,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle traders have turned back to the fundamental outlook of the market and have discounted the statement by President Trump of lowering beef prices.	1)	Cattle futures may have a difficult time regaining the recent losses as the market may have run its course, and demand may be slowing.
2)	Cattle futures may have difficulty regaining the losses, but prices are not expected to decline much, with the recent weakness being a market correction.	2)	Cash cattle trade is expected to be lower, with trade earlier in the week likely setting the direction.
3)	Hog futures should maintain support as traders remain optimistic over demand and the potential for higher prices.	3)	Heavier hog weights should keep sufficient pork available to the market and may limit how aggressive packers will be.
4)	The pattern in hog futures since July has been that a market correction lasts 3-4 days with traders buying the break. This pattern may hold.	4)	Pork cutout prices need to hold and trend higher, or it will be difficult for the market to increase further.

For our next livestock update, please visit our Midday Livestock comments between 11 a.m. and noon CST. Also, stay tuned to our Quick Takes throughout the day for periodic updates on the futures markets.

Robin Schmahl can be reached at rschmahl@agdairy.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.