DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The trough is leaving, but will leave a piece behind in the Southeast. A new trough is moving toward the West Coast. That will force the ridge toward the middle of the continent over the next few days.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The strongest portion of the ridge will be over central Canada while the trough shifts east through the central U.S. this weekend into early next week underneath it. Another looks to try to do something similar next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move into the middle of the country this weekend, spreading showers eastward to some degree next week. Showers will likely continue across the Plains through the middle of next week and quite possibly longer.

Temperatures will generally be above normal for most areas of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...112 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW SUN...28 AT 2 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HAZEN, ND

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7AM CDT SUNDAY...DAYTONA BEACH, FL 1.43 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The trough is leaving, but will leave a piece behind in the Southeast. A new trough is moving toward the West Coast. That will force the ridge toward the middle of the continent over the next few days. The strongest portion of the ridge will be over central Canada while the trough shifts east through the Central U.S. this weekend into early next week underneath it. Another looks to try to do something similar next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move into the middle of the country this weekend, spreading showers eastward to some degree next week. Showers will likely continue across the Plains through the middle of next week and quite possibly longer.

Temperatures will generally be above normal for most areas of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cold air over the weekend produced areas of frost in the Dakotas which may have been damaging to corn and soybeans in many locations. There is no more credible risk of frost for the rest of September. Spotty showers will be possible much of the week, though will favor Montana over other areas until a system moves into the region over the weekend. Any rainfall would be helpful.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through the south over the weekend while the north was cool and dry behind a front. Isolated showers will be possible much of the week with small disturbances moving through the region. A stronger system will move into the region this weekend with more widespread rainfall being possible. For those trying to harvest, showers will be unfortunate, causing delays. But for those still looking for one more rain, there are some good chances yet.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cold air settled into the region over the weekend, producing some frosts in Minnesota and Wisconsin on Sunday morning. Temperatures reached below 40 as far south as central Iowa and northern Illinois as well. Frosts are occurring in Michigan on Monday morning as well, but that would be the end of the frost risks for quite some time. The frosts occurred in areas that had very good yield prospects and likely reduced yields where they occurred. Dry weather in the south and east continue to have negative effects on filling corn and soybeans, but that time has likely run out for any rainfall to have a positive impact there. Showers are forecast in some areas this week, but will be more likely this weekend and next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Some showers moved through over the weekend, but had little to no impact on either the expanding drought or the falling water levels on the Lower Mississippi River. Dry conditions this week will only make both worse.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Showers fell across parts of southern Brazil over the weekend and more are forecast for Monday as well. Spring planting will begin shortly in the south and will increase going into October.

Central Brazil will wait until consistent wet season rains arrive, and the newest model runs have showers starting to arrive next week, which would be early and could cause some early soybean planting.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It was dry over the weekend, but recent heavy rainfall has been beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting. Widespread frost has not been beneficial for either though, and may have caused damage to wheat. Soil moisture is good enough to plant, but producers may wait until the risk of frost is over.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Waves of rain have been falling across the continent over the last couple of weeks and more are forecast to move through this week as well. The rainfall is good for immature summer crops and also ahead of winter wheat planting which starts up this month.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though Europe has been active with rainfall lately, the Black Sea region has not with a very poor end to the season.

However, a small system in the Black Sea may bring showers through Ukraine and southwestern Russia over the next few days before being pushed south again. Any rainfall would be helpful for what remains of filling corn and prepping soils for winter wheat planting that starts over the next couple of weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system that brought widespread rainfall to Western Australia last week brought limited showers through southeastern Australia over the weekend. Another burst to the system will bring through more widespread showers over the next couple of days to eastern areas, though, which would be helpful with more wheat and canola getting into reproductive stages.

However, colder temperatures may bring a risk of frost over the next several days too, which could be damaging.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Rainfall has been more consistent across central and northeastern China lately, which has favored filling corn and soybeans as well as prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting.

Several systems and fronts are forecast to move through over the next couple of weeks, which is also beneficial.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below to well below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers north Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal north and near to below normal south Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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