DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a deepening trough in the East. The trough will be slow to move eastward over the weekend into early next week, with the Canadian portion of the ridge spreading eastward behind it.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A portion of the trough will be left behind across the Southeast next week and a new trough will move into the West. They will squeeze the ridge across the Central U.S. as well.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Temperatures east of the Rockies will be rising next week, with widespread above-normal temperatures expected by the weekend. A system will move through the North-Central U.S. for late next week and weekend and may bring through some showers.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...112 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA, AND 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW THU...28 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...KEY WEST, FL 1.57 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a deepening trough in the East. The trough will be slow to move eastward over the weekend into early next week, with the Canadian portion of the ridge spreading eastward behind it. A portion of the trough will be left behind across the Southeast next week and a new trough will move into the West. They will squeeze the ridge across the Central U.S. as well.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Temperatures east of the Rockies will be rising next week, with widespread above-normal temperatures expected by the weekend. A system will move through the North-Central U.S. for late next week and weekend and may bring through some showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cold air settling into the region could mean some frosts over the weekend, especially on Sunday as skies should be clearer and winds should be calmer. Temperatures will at least fall into the 30s in many areas. If frosts do occur, they could quickly end what has been a strong summer of good weather and cut back on yields significantly.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through the region into the weekend. Scattered showers will move through and continue in the southwest through Monday, but temperatures will take another dip, being below normal again. For maturing corn and soybeans, any rain would not be favorable. However, for those that could still use a rain, it would be.

Temperatures will rise next week and should be beneficial for harvest. A few showers may develop in the rising temperatures.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong clipper-like system moved into the region on Thursday and continues to push another strong cold front through the region on Friday. Though some isolated showers have developed, amounts have been and continue to be lack-luster in most areas. In addition to showers, the front is bringing through some very cold air.

Temperatures may break below 40 degrees across the north and frosts cannot be ruled out through Monday. If frosts do occur, it would be extremely early and put an end to the season well before normal.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers moved through this week. Another front will drop south into the region over the weekend with a few showers as well. Otherwise, drier weather should favor maturing crops and harvest. Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to drop and the lack of rainfall in the Ohio Valley especially will cause transportation issues this fall.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front across the south continues to produce rainfall through Saturday, getting showers as far north as Parana.

Another front will move through southern areas with showers Sunday and Monday.

Spring planting will begin in a couple of weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south, which seems to be the case. Central Brazil will wait until consistent wet season rains arrive at the end of September or more likely in October, even though some spotty rainfall may be possible later next week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Recent heavy rainfall was beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting, which begins in a couple of weeks. Cold air is producing some frosts through the weekend though, and heading winter wheat may have sustained some damage. Another burst of colder air moves through next week behind another system moving through with limited rainfall. Producers may delay the start of corn planting until they feel temperatures will cooperate.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level system has brought waves of showers through much of the continent this week. More rain is expected to move through in several waves next week as well. For areas with immature corn and other summer crops, the rain has been and will be beneficial. It will also prep soils ahead of winter wheat planting, which begins this month.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though Europe has been active with rainfall lately, the Black Sea region has not as the poor end of the season continues for much of the region, especially southwestern Russia. The active pattern over Europe will continue to largely bypass the region, which not only puts on a bad end to the current season, but also is poor for the coming winter wheat planting season, which begins this month.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system will move through Western Australia on Friday with widespread showers. The system will lose a lot of its potential for showers as it moves through the east this weekend, but may bring a better shot of rain with a secondary system early next week, at least for some areas.

Western Australia has had favorable weather conditions for the last couple of months while the east has had hit-or-miss weather and longer stretches of low precipitation or complete dryness. With wheat heading, we could be seeing some yield limitations in the east if the rain does not pick up soon.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall across central China has been favorable given the region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions. Another system will move through on Friday with another one or two next week with beneficial finishing rains for corn and soybeans. The heavier rainfall in the central is also favorable for prepping soils ahead of winter wheat and canola planting.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below to well below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Friday, north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers north Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers north Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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