DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The eastern trough is deepening significantly and will be slow to move eastward over the weekend, with the Canadian portion of the ridge spreading eastward behind it for next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A portion of the trough will be left behind across the Southeast next week and a new trough will move into the West.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Cool temperatures east of the Rockies will moderate next week. A system will move through the Northern Plains in the middle of next week, but showers will be limited. Models have trended drier for next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...109 AT PHOENIX, AZ, AND EAST MESA, AZ

LOW TUE...26 AT 16 MILES WEST OF REDFEATHER LAKES, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...KEY WEST, FL 0.99 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The eastern trough is deepening significantly and will be slow to move eastward over the weekend, with the Canadian portion of the ridge spreading eastward behind it for next week. A portion of the trough will be left behind across the Southeast next week and a new trough will move into the West.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Cool temperatures east of the Rockies will moderate next week. A system will move through the Northern Plains in the middle of next week, but showers will be limited. Models have trended drier for next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong front moved through on Tuesday with a significant drop in temperature. Another strong front will move through on Thursday with another round of cold air that could mean some frosts heading into the weekend. If frosts do occur, they could quickly end what has been a strong summer of good weather and cut back on yields.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will slip through the region Wednesday and Thursday with a stronger one Friday into the weekend.

Scattered showers will be possible with both fronts, but temperatures will take another dip, especially behind the second front. A system will likely develop in the region along the stalled front again Sunday or Monday with more showers moving through. For maturing corn and soybeans, any rain would not be favorable. However, for those that could still use a rain, it would be.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A pair of fronts will move through this week, which will bring a couple of rounds of showers. Most of the crop could still use a drink, but it's starting to get a little late except for those that had to plant late or replant because of wet conditions this spring.

Temperatures behind the fronts will again drop down well below normal and some areas in Minnesota and Wisconsin might see a frost over the next several mornings. If frosts do occur, it would be extremely early and put an end to the season well before normal.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers continue to be in the region on Wednesday that could be a little heavy in some small areas. Another front will drop south into the region over the weekend with a few showers as well. Otherwise, drier weather should favor maturing crops and harvest.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved into the far south over the long weekend. That front could be more active throughout the week, getting showers as far north as Parana by the weekend. Spring planting will begin in a couple of weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Central Brazil will wait until wet season rains arrive at the end of September or more likely in October.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved through over the weekend which brought areas of heavy rain that should be beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting, which begins in a couple of weeks. Cold air produced some frosts though, and heading winter wheat may have sustained some damage. Producers may delay the start of corn planting until they feel temperatures will cooperate.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level system continues to bring waves of showers through much of the continent this week. More rain is expected to move through in several waves next week as well. For areas with immature corn and other summer crops, the rain has been and will be beneficial. It will also prep soils ahead of winter wheat planting, which begins later this month.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though Europe has been active with rainfall lately, the Black Sea region has not as the poor end of the season continues for much of the region, especially southwestern Russia. The active pattern over Europe will continue to largely bypass the region, which not only puts on a bad end to the current season, but also is poor for the coming winter wheat planting season, which begins later this month.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system will move through Western Australia later this week with widespread showers in the forecast. The system will lose a lot of its potential for showers as it moves through the east this weekend into early next week. Western Australia has had favorable weather conditions for the last couple of months while the east has had hit-or-miss weather and longer stretches of low precipitation or complete dryness. With wheat heading, we could be seeing some yield limitations in the east.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall across central China has been favorable given the region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions. Central China will go through a brief dry period through the middle of the week before another system moves through for late week. The heavier rainfall in the central is also favorable for prepping soils ahead of winter wheat and canola planting.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south through Thursday, north Friday-Saturday.

Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, above normal north and below normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to above normal north and below normal south Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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