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The summer forecast was a bust for most of the country. Without a real climate driver running the show (the El Nino-Southern Oscillation [ENSO] was neutral and basically spot-on average the entire summer), the weather pattern featured a lot of moving parts and no significant stagnant blocks in the upper-level pattern. That led the summer to be quite active, and a lot of rain fell across a wide area of the country. Very little drought is found east of the Rockies to start off the fall, though drought in the West could have issues for winter crops and wildfires.

Though summer featured a neutral ENSO, forecasts suggest a cold-neutral or weak La Nina for fall, especially late fall. Typically, this means a warmer and drier pattern for much of the U.S., leading to good overall conditions during harvest but some concerns for winter wheat planting.

Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington): It was hotter and drier this summer, which caused widespread drought to develop in the region. This fall may continue to showcase above-normal temperatures on average but also allows for an increase in storm coverage and potential for more beneficial rainfall, especially later in the season. That may turn out to be favorable for those planting winter grains, allowing them to be planted easily with potential drought reduction during the end of the season toward winter. However, the lingering drought could cause an increase in the wildfire situation this fall.

Southwest: The monsoon has been active this summer, but mainly in the east. Despite that, drought has continued to be entrenched and has even expanded in many areas this summer. Hotter and drier conditions are forecast to continue through the fall, which could have a major impact on the wildfire season, especially in California.

Northern Plains: It hasn't been perfect, but the summer was much more active than forecast, allowing drought reduction to spread to many areas. Drought persists in some areas, though, especially in Montana. An overall hotter and drier fall could spread drought through more of the region, complicating winter wheat planting and establishment.

Central and Southern Plains: Fears of a dry summer were too aggressive and overplayed, as a much more active weather situation brought widespread heavy rainfall to many areas of the region. That led to an overall reduction in drought, which is uncommon during the summer months. Very little drought is on the board to start the fall, but a hotter and drier season is forecast. We could see the pendulum swing the other way this fall and see drought return. That would affect winter wheat planting and establishment but would make for good conditions for harvesting corn and soybeans.

Coastal Texas and Louisiana: Though the Gulf has been largely quiet this summer, rainfall has been near normal, and drought has not been a concern so far. An active fall is forecast with the developing La Nina, favoring the potential for more tropical storms. Outside of this, shower potential is elevated early in the season but may start to get drier toward winter.

Midwest: It wasn't a perfect summer, but conditions were generally wet for most of the region. Some areas experienced dryness at times, but drought was not much of a factor this year. That puts the crop in a good spot as we get into harvest. A hotter and largely drier forecast is on the table, which should allow harvest to progress without issue. We may have issues with soil-moisture replenishment in some areas if it is too dry, but overall, this fall should allow most folks to do what they need to do in their fields.

Delta/Lower Mississippi Valley: Showers were frequent early in the summer but waned through July and into August. Dryness started to creep back in late in the season but probably was helpful for the start of harvest, as crops were ahead of schedule with increased temperatures. Fall conditions are forecast to be drier, but the tropical season is reaching its peak, and there could be some surprise events that bring in more rain than forecast. If the rains do underperform, then we could see some significant building drought heading into the winter.

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast: A warm and active pattern allowed for frequent rainfall that kept drought out of the region this summer. A mild and showery pattern is forecast for the fall, too. Some late severe-weather events may be a little more frequent, as well. Overall, an active pattern should keep the region from diving deep into drought heading into winter.

Southeast: An active start to the summer waned going through July but picked up late in the month heading into early August. This led to very limited drought development in the region, and overall, that is not an issue heading into fall. Though the tropics have been quieter during summer, the forecast for fall could involve a couple of systems. If these do not occur, the region will likely end up on the drier side, and that could mean expanding dryness and drought heading into winter. However, that would be favorable for the fall harvest.

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