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After a year that started out so dry it was being compared to the drought of 2021, only to see excessive rainfall hit many of the same areas, resulting in multiple crop stages that affect not only harvest but sample quality, many were eager to see production estimates starting to roll in. Statistics Canada released its first model-based estimates of the year "using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data" Thursday morning. It's worth noting that the variable stages of growth may interfere with the results, and the trade may have already discounted their accuracy as a result. That said, it's certainly worth a closer look.

I will include the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) estimates released Aug. 20 based on its Canadian Crop Yield Forecasts model for comparison as well as USDA's Aug. 12 prediction where available.

Canola takes center stage given the likelihood of insufficient supply to meet demand, especially should the trade dispute with China be resolved. With that, Statistics Canada pegged the 2025 crop at 19.937 million metric ton (mmt) compared to AAFC's estimate of 20.1 mmt. It's worth noting the latter was up sharply from earlier estimates of 17.8 mmt (based on its own satellite imagery-based model). USDA had been the more optimistic one early on at 19.25 mmt, but that has now been outdone by the other two. Suffice it to say, it looks like satellite imagery is suggesting a big yield, with Statistics Canada predicting a national average of 41.0 bushels per acre (bpa), up from a revised 38.7 bpa last year. While there are no guarantees given the variability, canola's uncanny ability to recover from early stress cannot be ruled out -- at this time anyway.

Sticking with the oilseeds, Statistics Canada is looking for soybean production to fall nationally to 7.016 mmt from 7.568 mmt last year, thanks to lower yield expectations, both in the East and in Manitoba. For comparison, AAFC was slightly higher in its August update at 7.110 mmt while USDA pegged the crop at 7.0 mmt. All very similar, suggesting a tighter supply in the coming winter at a time when China may be looking for alternate sources of soybeans should the trade dispute with the U.S. continue.

Turning to the grains, 2025 all-wheat production was estimated to fall from last year to 35.548 mmt, thanks to slightly lower yields, according to Statistics Canada. Last year's production hit 35.939 mmt (still leaving very tight ending stocks, I might add) with AAFC and USDA both looking for slightly less. AAFC estimated all-wheat production at 34.855 mmt in August while USDA pegged it at 35.0 mmt.

The Statistics Canada durum wheat production estimate came out slightly higher than AAFC at 6.078 mmt. That was down from 6.38 mmt produced last year but slightly above the 5.993 mmt AAFC predicted. Yield is expected to fall from last year but not as much as it looked like it was going to earlier. This is one crop in particular that may have satellite imagery-based production estimates revised lower later due to the problems that multiple stages of crop development late in the season pose.

Statistics Canada estimated barley production will fall from not only last year's level, but it will come in below other estimates as well. At 7.991 mmt, its 2025 production estimate compares to 8.3 mmt predicted by AAFC, 8.2 mmt suggested by USDA and 2024 production of 8.144 mmt. Given the need to ration exports and domestic use as it was (according to AAFC's August update), 309,000 mt less won't help. This is another crop where satellite imagery may have issues with multiple crop stages, given the sharply higher yield estimate for Alberta -- up 14.6% compared to last year.

Corn production took the opposite approach, with the Statistics Canada estimate beating last year's production total as well as other projections. At 15.553 mmt produced nationally, the 2025 crop would surpass last year's 15.345 mmt, AAFC's estimate of 15.25 mmt and USDA's projection of 15.3 mmt. All are relatively close and are based on lower yields compared to last year. According to AAFC's August update, increased imports and decreased exports will both be needed to allow for a slight increase in domestic use based on that production.

And last, but not least, oat production came in almost exactly as AAFC had predicted. Statistics Canada pegged 2025 oat production at 3.393 mmt compared to 3.395 mmt estimated by AAFC but slightly below USDA's prediction of 3.54 mmt. Minimum pipeline ending stocks should be the result based on AAFC's August update, providing feed use remains as low as it was in 2024-25. Exports may still have to fall slightly, retreating to levels more like those seen in 2023-24. In short, nothing is bearish by any means. As such, watch for cash premiums as much as futures market action for marketing opportunities.

As a housekeeping note -- Statistics Canada will update its estimates on Sept. 7 based on "data derived from remote sensing, survey and agroclimatic data sources." That will be followed by the final survey-based production estimates released Dec. 4.

I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.

Mitch Miller can be reached at mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com

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