DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The trough will get a reinforcing shot later this week that will keep it around through the weekend.

The northern half of the ridge in western Canada will spread east across Canada this week, cutting off the trough.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will dive into central Canada in the middle of next week, which will likely spread east of the Rockies in the U.S. as well.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A weak system will move into the Northern Plains this weekend, spreading slowly eastward next week. Temperatures will generally stay near or below normal east of the Rockies this weekend through next week, while the West stays above normal.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...117 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA, AND 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW SUN...29 AT 32 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...KNOXVILLE, TN 1.79 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The trough will get a reinforcing shot later this week that will keep it around through the weekend.

The northern half of the ridge in western Canada will spread east across Canada this week, cutting off the trough. Another trough will dive into central Canada in the middle of next week, which will likely spread east of the Rockies in the U.S. as well.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A weak system will move into the Northern Plains this weekend, spreading slowly eastward next week. Temperatures will generally stay near or below normal east of the Rockies this weekend through next week, while the West stays above normal.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Colder air moved into the region late last week and will stick around for a few days before temperatures rebound to near normal midweek. Morning lows fell into the 30s both Sunday and Monday mornings in a couple of spots, but frost generally did not occur. Dry conditions are forecast for much of the week, but a weak system will move into the region with scattered showers on Friday and slowly moves eastward through the weekend. The rainfall will be helpful for filling corn and soybeans, but not for spring wheat harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is largely stalled in the region, which has already produced scattered showers and thunderstorms, and will produce more through Thursday before being pushed south. However, in its wake, a new system will develop in the Northern Plains and bring isolated showers into the region going into next week. Temperatures remain cool through next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A big cold front moved through the region over the weekend and temperatures have fallen significantly behind it. The cooler air will generally be in the region through next week as it get a couple of reinforcing shots later this week and again next week. Some showers will move through the Great Lakes with a front on Thursday, but most areas are likely to remain dry until a slow-moving system moves through next week. Many of the dry areas in the south and east need rainfall and the dry forecast is not favorable. Some reduction in yields is likely occurring, despite the cool temperatures and low stress.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Though a front moved into the region and largely stalled, showers have been isolated to non-existent over the weekend and very few showers are forecast in the region until a low-pressure center moves along the front on Thursday and Friday.

Finishing weather for corn and soybeans has been poor in the region, and could have led to reduced yields. The same goes for cotton that is moving more into the fill stages as well.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Cold air moved into the region over the weekend and some patchy areas of frost were noted or possible in several areas.

Temperatures will moderate early this week and largely go above normal over the next couple of days. With most crops maturing and awaiting harvest, the frost was not a major issue, but could have affected some fields. Precipitation will be very limited this week and the overall dry conditions will be favorable for harvest.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved into the south over the weekend and brought some areas of heavy rain, which are helpful for heading to filling wheat. Some frosts will be possible behind the front for the next couple of mornings, which could be damaging. Spring planting will begin in a few weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Another system should bring in some more rain early next week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Frosts developed in some areas over the weekend, which may have been damaging to some more advanced wheat. A couple more frosty mornings will be possible across the north that will need to be monitored as well. A system will move through late Friday through the weekend, which should bring more widespread rainfall. Recent rainfall has been helpful to increase soil moisture well ahead of the spring planting season.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level system will produce waves of showers across much of the continent starting on Tuesday and lasting into next week.

For filling corn and other summer crops, the rain will be beneficial. It will also prime some of the soils for winter wheat planting, which will begin in September.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system brought showers through Ukraine over the weekend, but turned into very isolated showers in southwestern Russia, which has endured a lot of heat and dryness this summer. Dry conditions for much of this week will continue to be unfavorable for filling corn and sunflowers. It also puts winter wheat planting behind schedule in many areas, which should start up in September.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front produced areas of heavy rainfall again in Western Australia over the weekend, as conditions for winter wheat and canola have been increasing in recent weeks. The front will struggle to produce much precipitation for southeastern Australia early this week, which has been suffering more of a dry trend and needs rain as wheat and canola are in their reproductive stages. A system may move through later this week that would possibly bring more widespread showers that would help. However, it will also bring in some cold air and damaging frosts will be possible as well.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front continued to produce beneficial rainfall to central China over the weekend. The region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Another front will move through midweek with more potential beneficial showers. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

East: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures below normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling well below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures below normal Monday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near normal north and below to well below normal south through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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