DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the West and Central with a trough moving over the top of it in the Canadian Prairies. That trough will deepen over the Great Lakes this weekend and only slowly move eastward next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough will likely be reinforced later next week to keep the overall trough in the East through the end of the month. The leftover ridge will get pushed into the West this weekend and largely stay there through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The tail end of a cold front will stall across the Southern Plains through the Gulf Coast, producing scattered showers throughout next week. Behind this front, a shot of fall-like air will settle in through much of next week. A reinforcing cold front will likely move through the Great Lakes with isolated showers later next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...119 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW THU...26 AT PIERCE, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...ROANOKE, VA 3.39 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the West and Central with a trough moving over the top of it in the Canadian Prairies. That trough will deepen over the Great Lakes this weekend and only slowly move eastward next week. It will likely be reinforced later next week to keep the overall trough in the East through the end of the month. The leftover ridge will get pushed into the West this weekend and largely stay there through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The tail end of a cold front will stall across the Southern Plains through the Gulf Coast, producing scattered showers throughout next week. Behind this front, a shot of fall-like air will settle in through much of next week. A reinforcing cold front will likely move through the Great Lakes with isolated showers later next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A burst of much cooler air will settle in behind a cold front on Friday especially for the Dakotas that will make it feel like fall going into next week. Recent rainfall has been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but not for the spring wheat harvest.

Some drier conditions in the forecast may help with that.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through Friday through the weekend, stalling across the south where rain may be heavy going into next week. A significant drop in temperature will follow behind that front that will make it feel like fall. Conditions are still largely favorable for most areas in the region due to regular rainfall.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas from Missouri to Illinois are still on the dry side after being missed by an active weather pattern over the last several weeks. Another front will move through Friday through the weekend. That front may not bring much rainfall, but should bring a more significant drop in temperature going into next week that will feel like fall and reduce stress for some areas that are drier. These dry areas need rain though to finish up, but this run of dryness is not good for that prospect. A reinforcing cold front late next week may bring a few showers through, but not the amount of rain those in the south and east need.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers continue in the region, especially across the south. Though a front will move in and stall this weekend, showers are forecast to remain isolated.

Dry spots have been popping up and drought has been quickly expanding across the region, hurting the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as filling cotton. Harvest has started for corn and soybeans though, which will only increase going into September.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system continues with some showers in the east on Friday. Temperatures behind the front are taking a big dive, especially across the east through Monday. Frosts are not in the forecast, but could be close, which would put an end to the season if they occur. Largely dry weather follows for next week, which would be beneficial for maturing and harvest of crops.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. A will produce more rain across the south this weekend, which could be favorably heavy in some areas. Some frosts may occur behind the front, though, which would be concerning for advancing wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Another front will move through on Friday and Saturday. Rainfall will be more limited to the north, but the drop in temperature will be more significant, with frosts looking likely across most areas of the country. Wheat should be starting to head, especially in the north, which could see damage should frosts develop this weekend. But cooler temperatures will slow growth regardless. Another system will move through later next week with another round of beneficial rainfall.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system continues to bring showers to eastern areas of the continent on Friday, after producing some good rainfall from France to Italy earlier this week. Temperatures have fallen behind the system, reducing stress. Another system may do something similar late next week and weekend. The rainfall is good for filling corn where it occurs, though there are some drier spots across the north that could use some rain.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moving through Europe may bring more widespread showers to Ukraine on Friday, but those are forecast to become isolated farther east this weekend. Eastern areas have endured more heat and dryness than not throughout the season, which has been unfavorable for corn and sunflowers.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front produced some decent rainfall in the northeast earlier this week, which will help to reverse a recent dry trend.

Western Australia has seen crop conditions improving with frequent rainfall as wheat and canola are getting into reproductive stages. Southeastern areas are still drier and are in need of more rain as those crops get into reproductive stages. Yet another strong front will move through Western Australia this weekend with more limited showers for the east next week.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front has been producing showers in central China this week, which continues through the weekend. Central areas have had issues with heat and dryness throughout the season and this rainfall will be helpful. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, south Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal Friday, falling Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, falling Saturday, near normal north and well below normal south Sunday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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