DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the West and Central with a small trough in the East that is deflecting Hurricane Erin away from the U.S. and out to sea. There is a trough in the Canadian Prairies moving over the top of the ridge which will deepen over the Great Lakes this weekend and only slowly move eastward next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough will likely be reinforced later next week to keep the overall trough in the East through the end of the month. The leftover ridge will get pushed into the West this weekend and largely stay there through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The tail end of a cold front will stall across the Southern Plains through the Gulf Coast this weekend, producing scattered showers in these areas next week. A low-pressure system may form in the Plains late next week and push into the Midwest with showers, but that is uncertain and unlikely to bring much precipitation through the end of the month. Behind this front, a shot of fall-like air will settle in through much of next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...119 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW WED...32 AT 19 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OLD STATION, CA, AND PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...BIRMINGHAM, AL 1.80 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the West and Central with a small trough in the East that is deflecting Hurricane Erin away from the U.S. and out to sea. There is a trough in the Canadian Prairies moving over the top of the ridge which will deepen over the Great Lakes this weekend and only slowly move eastward next week. It will likely be reinforced later next week to keep the overall trough in the East through the end of the month. The leftover ridge will get pushed into the West this weekend and largely stay there through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The tail end of a cold front will stall across the Southern Plains through the Gulf Coast this weekend, producing scattered showers in these areas next week. A low-pressure system may form in the Plains late next week and push into the Midwest with showers, but that is uncertain and unlikely to bring much precipitation through the end of the month. Behind this front, a shot of fall-like air will settle in through much of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong front will move through on Thursday, but with more limited rainfall. More noticeably, the front will bring through a burst of much cooler air, especially for the Dakotas that will make it feel like fall. Recent rainfall has been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but not for the spring wheat harvest. Some drier conditions in the forecast may help with that.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through Friday through the weekend, stalling across the south where rain may be heavy going into next week. A significant drop in temperature will follow behind that front that will make it feel like fall. Conditions are still largely favorable for most areas in the region due to regular rainfall.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front missed some key areas in the south and east as it moved through this week. Areas from Missouri to Illinois are still on the dry side. Another front will move through Friday through the weekend. That front may not bring much rainfall, but should bring a more significant drop in temperature going into next week that will feel like fall and reduce stress for some areas that are drier. These dry areas need rain though to finish up, but this run of dryness is not good for that prospect.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers continue in the region, especially across the south. Though a front will move in and stall this weekend, showers are forecast to remain isolated.

Dry spots have been popping up and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed though, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as filling cotton. Harvest has started for corn and soybeans though, which will only increase going into September.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system continues to move across the region through Friday, bringing some rainfall and being an annoyance for maturing crops and harvest. Temperatures behind the front will take a dive, especially across the east through Monday. Frosts are not in the forecast, but could be close, which would put an end to the season if they occur. Largely dry weather follows for next week, which would be beneficial for maturing and harvest of crops.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. A front brought widespread and needed rainfall across the south over the last couple of days, though it also brought some severe winds. Another front is forecast to produce more rain across the south this weekend. Some frosts may occur behind the second front, which would be concerning for advancing wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A system moved through the country with widespread rainfall earlier this week. Heavy rain in some areas helped to refill soils.

Behind the system, cooler temperatures have returned. Some frost will be possible across the south, but damage to vegetative wheat is not expected.

Another front will move through on Friday and Saturday. Rainfall will be more limited to the north, but the drop in temperature will be more significant, with frosts looking likely across most areas of the country. Wheat may be starting to head in the north, which could see damage should frosts develop this weekend. But cooler temperatures will slow growth regardless.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system continues to spin through the continent for the remainder of this week with widespread showers from Italy to Romania.

Temperatures are falling behind the system as well, reducing stress. Another system may do something similar next week. And we may see yet another move through late next week and weekend. The rainfall is good for filling corn where it occurs, though there are some drier spots across the north that could use some rain.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moving through Europe may bring more widespread showers to western areas Thursday and Friday, but those are forecast to become isolated farther east this weekend. Eastern areas have endured more heat and dryness than not throughout the season, which continues to be unfavorable for corn and sunflowers.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front produced some decent rainfall in the northeast on Wednesday, which will help to reverse a recent dry trend. Another front moved through Western Australia with another round of good rainfall for an area that has seen crop conditions improving as they start heading. That front will struggle to produce rain for eastern over the next couple of days, areas which have started to get drier again and could use some more rain as heading starts to come. Yet another strong front will move through Western Australia this weekend with more limited showers for the east next week.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front has been producing showers in central China this week, which continues through the weekend. Central areas have had issues with heat and dryness throughout the season and this rainfall will be helpful. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, falling Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, south Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal Thursday-Friday, falling Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, falling Saturday, near normal north and well below normal south Sunday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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