DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of North America with a small disturbance moving over the top of it through the Great Lakes. There is a trough in Eastern Canada and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The little disturbance will move into the Northeast over the next couple of days, deflecting Hurricane Erin and keeping it offshore. The western trough will send a larger piece of energy over the top of the ridge later this week, which will deepen over the Great Lakes this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough will only slowly move eastward next week. The leftover ridge will get pushed into the West at the same time.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front will push through the country over the weekend with only isolated showers for most areas, but a big drop in temperature that will make many areas feel like fall. The Plains may end up with some good rainfall, though. Models have essentially removed a system that would move through the Corn Belt next week, though some showers may occur in the cooler air.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...113 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...27 AT 12 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...SIOUX FALLS, SD 1.55 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of North America with a small disturbance moving over the top of it through the Great Lakes. There is a trough in Eastern Canada and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The little disturbance will move into the Northeast over the next couple of days, deflecting Hurricane Erin and keeping it offshore. The western trough will send a larger piece of energy over the top of the ridge later this week, which will deepen over the Great Lakes this weekend and only slowly move eastward next week. The leftover ridge will get pushed into the West at the same time.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front will push through the country over the weekend with only isolated showers for most areas, but a big drop in temperature that will make many areas feel like fall. The Plains may end up with some good rainfall, though. Models have essentially removed a system that would move through the Corn Belt next week, though some showers may occur in the cooler air.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another front will move through on Thursday, but with more limited rainfall. More noticeably, the front will bring through a burst of much cooler air, especially for the Dakotas that will make it feel like fall. Recent rainfall has been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but not for the spring wheat harvest. Some drier conditions in the forecast may help with that.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will continue to drop through the region over the next couple of days with scattered showers.

Another front will move through late this week and weekend. A more significant drop in temperature will follow behind the front going into next week.

Conditions are still largely favorable for most areas in the region due to regular rainfall.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front continues to push through the region through Wednesday, bringing scattered showers and a slight drop in temperature. Another front will move through Friday through the weekend. That front may not bring much rainfall, but should bring a more significant drop in temperature going into next week that will feel like fall and reduce stress for some areas that remain drier.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers continue in the region, especially across the south. Though a couple of fronts will move through this week and weekend, showers are forecast to remain isolated. Dry spots have been popping up and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed though, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as filling cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system will move through later this week, bringing some rainfall and being an annoyance for maturing crops and harvest.

Temperatures behind the front will take a dive, especially across the east through the weekend. Frosts are not in the forecast, but could be close, which would put an end to the season if they occur.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. A front is bringing widespread and needed rainfall across the south. Another front is forecast to do the same this weekend. Some frosts may occur behind the second front, which would be concerning for advancing wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A system is moving through the country with widespread rainfall on Tuesday and a drop in temperature. Some frost will be possible across the south, but damage to vegetative wheat is not expected.

Another front will move through later this week. Rainfall will be more limited, but the drop in temperature will be more significant, with frosts looking likely across most of the central and southern portions of the country. Wheat may be starting to head in the north, which could see damage should frosts develop this weekend. But cooler temperatures will slow growth regardless.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system will go spinning through the continent this week with widespread showers from France to Romania. Temperatures will fall behind the system as well, reducing stress. Another system may do something similar next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It continues to be very dry for much of the region. A weak system brought limited showers through this weekend. A system moving through Europe may bring more widespread showers to western areas later this week, but are forecast to become isolated farther east this weekend.

Eastern areas have endured more heat and dryness than not throughout the season, which continues to be unfavorable for corn and sunflowers.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front lingering in the northeast is producing some beneficial showers, which will help to reverse a recent dry trend. Another front will move through Western Australia on Tuesday with another round of good rainfall for an area that has seen crop conditions improving as they start heading. That front will struggle to produce rain for eastern areas later this week which have started to get drier again and could use some more rain as heading starts to come over the next couple of weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought some good rainfall to central China over the weekend, which will stick around this week with more rainfall. Central areas have had issues with heat and dryness throughout the season and this rainfall will be very helpful. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday, south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, falling Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Thursday.

Temperatures below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday.

Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday, falling Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers far south Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, falling Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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