Commodities Market Impact Weather

Front Keeping Hurricane Erin Away From US East Coast

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A cold front pushing through the U.S., a burst of cooler temperatures for the weekend, and showers across Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

FRONT PUSHING THROUGH MIDWEST, COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND

Temperatures were extremely hot across the southern and eastern Midwest over the weekend. A front moved in across the north and produced widespread rainfall, including areas of severe weather and heavy rain. Some of that moved southeast through northern Illinois and Indiana on Saturday, with more showers across Missouri on Sunday, easing some of the stress. The main front will push through the region through Wednesday, bringing more scattered showers and a drop in temperature. Another front will move through Friday through the weekend. That front may not bring much rainfall, but should bring a more significant drop in temperature going into next week, reducing stress.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some isolated showers formed over the weekend in the Central and Southern Plains while heat built in and caused stress for drier areas. A front will drop through the region over the next couple of days with scattered showers and a nice drop in temperature. Another front will move through late this week and weekend. That will likely have fewer showers, but a better drop in temperature going into next week. Conditions are still largely favorable for most areas in the region.

COLD AIR MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, including some heavy rain and severe weather in the Dakotas. Another front will move through on Thursday, but with more limited rainfall. More noticeably, the front will bring through a burst of much cooler air, especially for the Dakotas that will make it feel like fall. Another strong front will move through in the middle of next week, with more widespread rainfall again. The rainfall is favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but not for harvesting spring wheat.

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ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE DELTA

Isolated showers continued in the Delta over the weekend, especially across the south. Though a couple of fronts will move through this week and weekend, showers are forecast to remain isolated. Dry spots have been popping up and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed though, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as filling cotton.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES, SLIGHT RISK OF FROST

Areas of showers moved through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend. Several more waves of showers will move through this week, being an annoyance for maturing crops and harvest. A bigger cold front will move through on Thursday, producing a significant drop in temperature, especially across the east through the weekend. Frosts are not in the forecast, but could be close, which would put an end to the season if they occur.

TWO FRONTS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Spring planting will begin in Brazil in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. A front will move through early this week with widespread and needed rainfall across the south. Another front is forecast to do the same this weekend. Some frosts may occur behind the second front, which would be concerning for advancing wheat.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

Some isolated showers moved through central and southeastern Europe over the weekend, which continues in the southeast on Monday. It was also hot, which continued to create stress for developing corn and other spring-sewn crops. Conditions were better for the remaining winter wheat harvest. A system will go spinning through the continent this week with widespread showers from France to Romania. Temperatures will fall behind the system as well, reducing stress.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

It continues to be very dry for much of the Black Sea region. A weak system brought limited showers through this weekend, which continues in a couple of lucky areas on Monday. A system moving through Europe may bring more widespread showers to western areas later this week, but are forecast to become isolated farther east this weekend. Eastern areas have endured more heat and dryness than not throughout the season, which continues to be unfavorable for corn and sunflowers.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA NEEDS MORE RAIN

Some isolated showers went through eastern Australia over the weekend, but many areas saw little or no rainfall. The responsible front will produce more widespread rainfall for northeastern areas early this week, which will help to reverse a recent dry trend. Another front will move through Western Australia on Tuesday with another round of good rainfall for an area that has seen crop conditions improving as they start heading. That front will struggle to produce rain for eastern areas later this week which have started to get drier again and could use some more rain as heading starts to come over the next couple of weeks.

IMPROVED RAINFALL IN CENTRAL CHINA

A front brought some good rainfall to central China over the weekend, which may stick around for several days this week with more rainfall. Central areas have had issues with heat and dryness throughout the season and this rainfall will be very helpful. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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John Baranick