DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There are troughs in western Canada and developing in the North Pacific. A ridge will be building over the Eastern U.S. over the next couple of days.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

That eastern ridge is forecast to shift westward early next week toward the Rockies, forcing a trough to develop across the East. The North Pacific trough should send a piece of energy over the top of the ridge through Canada late next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front will push through the country early-to-mid next week, producing scattered showers and a drop in temperature. A major hurricane, Erin, is forecast to approach the East Coast in the middle of next week. The front should keep it offshore, but will need to be watched. Another system is forecast to move through late next week and weekend with scattered showers as well as another drop in temperature.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...121 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW WED...31 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...NASHVILLE, TN 2.27 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There are troughs in western Canada and developing in the North Pacific. A ridge will be building over the Eastern U.S. over the next couple of days. That ridge is forecast to shift westward early next week toward the Rockies, forcing a trough to develop across the East. The North Pacific trough should send a piece of energy over the top of the ridge through Canada late next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front will push through the country early-to-mid next week, producing scattered showers and a drop in temperature. A major hurricane, Erin, is forecast to approach the East Coast in the middle of next week. The front should keep it offshore, but will need to be watched. Another system is forecast to move through late next week and weekend with scattered showers as well as another drop in temperature.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moving into the region will bring sporadic showers through the weekend as it stalls. The front should completely move out early next week. Another system should move through late next week. The rain is favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but could continue to negatively impact wheat quality and harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Sporadic showers may develop over the next few days before a front moves into northern areas this weekend.

Temperatures will be rising ahead of this front and could be stressful to some areas that are still on the drier side. The front will push through next week, bringing showers and a relief in temperature.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures will be rising going into the weekend and could be stressful for some areas that have been a bit too dry in the east. Another front will move into northern areas on Friday and stall through the weekend before moving eastward next week. Some areas of flooding around Minnesota and Wisconsin are going to be possible and temperatures will fall behind the front. Other areas should get chances for at least moderate rainfall, helping with filling corn and soybeans where they hit.

However, more areas are likely to get missed and could compound some of the dryness that has occurred in the east.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers continue in the region into next week as a weak front stalls in the region, especially across the south. Dry spots are popping up in the region and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as cotton.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Dry conditions and rising temperatures continue to bring spring wheat closer to maturity as harvest starts to rapidly increase and winter wheat finishes up. Only limited chances for rain are in the forecast to slow down that progress.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Areas of heavy rain over the last week have been favorable for later-developing crops, but have been a negative factor for maturing and early harvest in other areas. Those across the north and east have seen beneficial rainfall to reduce drought and could make for another cutting of hay as we see more rainfall chances through this weekend. More rainfall is expected next week and could set back harvest and quality some more. But it should also help to battle the wildfires across the north.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Recent frost across the south may have had some impact on early-developing wheat in a few spots, but overall should not have been all that damaging. Spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. It will be drier through the weekend, but we could see another front move in next week with showers across the south.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Another front should bring another round of colder temperatures this weekend. Wheat should still be vegetative and not be all that impacted from the cold, but will be heading later this month and is in need of some rainfall. A front that goes through next week is more likely to spread beneficial rainfall through the country.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions will continue in most places through the weekend, though a front moving through may produce some limited showers in a few lucky areas in the northeast over the next couple of days. The hot and dry conditions will put stress on filling corn, but be favorable for the remaining wheat harvest. A more widespread rain event is forecast for next week with a system rolling through most of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though some showers moved through northeastern areas, it continues to be very dry for much of the region. A weak system could bring limited showers through this weekend into next week, but coverage is forecast to be awfully low. More reports of drought stress continue to pop up on social media as harvest continues for wheat and corn continues to fill. Good weather has come in short bursts this season, with stress due to heat and dryness more common than not.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front brought another wave of good rainfall through Western Australia on Wednesday, but will struggle to produce rain across the east, continuing a recent trend in rainfall. Isolated showers may develop in the east this weekend too, but they need more rain. Though wheat conditions are improving in the west, they've been more stagnant and fair in the east. Wheat and canola in the southeast should get into their reproductive stages later this month and could use some more rain in which to do so.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will continue showers in portions of central China for the next few days and another disturbance is forecast for the weekend with some more favorable rain chances for filling corn and soybeans. Central China has endured more instances of heat and dryness than other areas of the country and could really use the rain. Areas in the northeast have had more consistent rainfall and variable temperatures, with largely favorable weather for corn and soybeans there.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

East: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers north through Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers north Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north and southeast. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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