USDA Reports Summary

By DTN Staff

This article was originally published at 11:05 a.m. CDT on Tuesday, Aug. 12. It was last updated with additional information at 11:35 a.m. CDT on Tuesday, Aug. 12.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA on Tuesday forecast a record corn crop at a whopping 16.7 billion bushels with record yields projected for corn at 188.8 bushels per acre -- shattering another record.

USDA also bumped up the soybean yield to 53.6 bpa, just below the record, though USDA lowered soybean production 43 million bushels to 4.292 billion bushels.

USDA released its August Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Tuesday.

Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often. We will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from Tuesday's reports, including commentary from our analysts.

Tuesday's new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, slightly bullish for soybeans and neutral for wheat, said DTN Contributing Analyst Todd Hultman. Tuesday's world ending stocks estimates from USDA were bearish for corn and roughly neutral for soybeans and wheat.

You can also view the full reports here:

-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA increased the 2025-26 corn production by more than 1 billion bushels (bb) in the report, moving from 15.705 billion bushels to 16.742 bb. For comparison, record production was 15.34 bb in the 2023-24 crop.

Planted acres for corn were also increased 2.1 million acres (ma) to 97.3 ma. Harvested acres are projected at 88.7 ma, up from 86.8 ma in July.

On the demand side, total feed and residual use is projected at 6.1 bb, up 250 million bushels (mb) from July.

Ethanol use is pegged at 5.6 bb, up 100 mb. Total domestic use is forecast at 13.08 bb, up 345 mb from July.

Corn exports for the new crop are projected at 2.875 bb, up 200 mb from last month.

Ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop now are projected at 2.117 bb, a jump of 457 mb from last month. If that holds, the ending stocks would be the highest in seven years.

The farmgate price for the 2025-26 crop was lowered 30 cents to $3.90 a bushel.

With old-crop domestic corn, USDA also lowered ending stocks 35 mb to 1.305 bb, which did lower the carryover. Old-crop exports were increased 70 mb to 2.820 bb.

The farmgate price for 2024-25 remained at $4.30 a bushel.

Globally, USDA projects beginning stocks for the 2025-26 corn crop at 283.11 million metric tons, down 1.17 mmt from July. Production is forecast at 1,288.58 mmt, up 24.92 mmt from last month. Exports globally are projected at 200.86. That puts projected global ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop at 282.54 mmt, up 10.46 mmt from July.

For the 2024-25 crop, Brazil's production was forecast 132 mmt while exports were held pat at 43 mmt. Argentina's production was maintained at 50 mmt and exports were 34.5 mmt.

SOYBEANS

USDA forecast soybean production at 4.29 billion bushels, at the low end of pre-report estimates. The agency forecasts a national average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre, which would be a record high if it comes to fruition. USDA reduced harvested area from 82.5 million acres to 80.1 million.

Supplies for the 2025-26 marketing year are forecast to decline. Ending stocks, at 290 million bushels, are 20 mb lower than last month's estimate. Production declined by 43 mb and beginning stocks by 20 mb. USDA trimmed its export forecast by 40 mb to 1.705 bb and residual by 3 mb. The national average farm gate price was unchanged at $10.10 per bushel.

On the old-crop, 2024-25 marketing year, USDA increased its crush forecast by 10 mb to 2.43 bb. The export forecast also climbed 10 mb to 1.875 bb, resulting in a 20 mb decline in ending stocks, which came in at 330 mb.

Globally, USDA trimmed ending stocks for 2025-26 to 124.9 mmt, a 1.17 mmt decline from last month. The reduction reflects reduced U.S. supplies. Brazil and Argentina production were left unchanged at 175 mmt and 48.5 mmt, respectively.

For the 2024-25 season, USDA increased Argentina's production to 50.9 mmt, up 1 mmt from last month. Brazilian production was unchanged at 169 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA decreased its estimate of U.S. wheat production to 1.927 billion bushels, compared to 1.929 bb in the July report.

USDA estimates ending stocks for 2025-26 wheat at 869 million bushels, a decrease from 890 mb in July.

Wheat farmgate prices were pegged at $5.30 per bushel, down from $5.40 in July.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.36 billion bushels, up 1% from the July 1 forecast and up less than 1% from 2024. As of Aug. 1, the United States yield is forecast at 54.8 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from last month and up 3.1 bushels from last year's average yield of 51.7 bushels per acre.

Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 24.7 million acres, down less than 1% from the Acreage report and down 5% from 2024.

Hard red winter production, at 769 million bushels, is up 2% from last month. Soft red winter, at 339 million bushels, is up 1% from the July forecast. White winter, at 247 million bushels, is down 3% from last month. Of the white winter production, 20.5 million bushels are hard white, and 226 million bushels are soft white.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 87.4 million bushels, up 10% from the previous forecast and up 9% from 2024. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.9 bushels per harvested acre, up 2.2 bushels from the previous forecast and up 1.6 bushels from 2024.

A record-high yield is forecast for North Dakota. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 2.14 million acres, up 4% from the Acreage report and up 5% 2024.

Other spring wheat production for grain is forecast at 484 million bushels, down 4% from the previous forecast and down 11% from last year. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 50.0 bushels per harvested acre, down 1.7 bushels from the previous forecast and down 2.5 bushels from 2024.

Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 9.69 million acres, down 1% from the Acreage report and down 6% from 2024. Of the total production, 449 million bushels are hard red spring wheat, down 4% from the July forecast.

Globally, USDA estimates wheat production at 806.9 million metric tons in August, a decrease from 808.55 mmt in July.

USDA estimates European Union production at 138.25 mmt, an increase from 137.25 mmt last month. Russian production was left unchanged at 83.5 mmt in July. Chinese production is decreased to 140 mmt compared to 142 mmt last month.

USDA estimates wheat world ending stocks at 260.08 mmt, decreased from 261.52 mmt in July.

European Union ending stocks are unchanged at 12.61 mmt, as were Russian ending stocks at 9.39 mmt.

Total global wheat exports were estimated at 213.53 mmt in August, compared to 213.06 mmt in July. Russian exports were left unchanged at 46 mmt.

LIVESTOCK

Tuesday's WASDE report was rather bullish for the beef and cattle markets of 2025, according to DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.

"Beef production for 2025 was decreased by 262 million pounds, as both fed and non-fed cattle slaughter speeds have been reduced, and carcass weights have declined slightly as well," Stewart said. "But the major jaw-dropping data in the report was the quarterly steer price projections. Steer prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $238 (up $12 from last month's estimate), fourth-quarter steer prices are expected to average $240 (up $11 from last month's estimate), steer prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $242 (up $15 from last month's estimate) and steer prices in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $243 (up $15 from last month's estimate). 2025 beef imports were reduced by 103 million pounds as tariff restrictions are expected to limit Brazilian beef imports. And, for 2025, beef exports were reduced by 46 million pounds, as supplies remain tight domestically."

Tuesday's WASDE report shared mostly positive news for the pork and hog markets of 2025, Stewart said.

"Pork production for 2025 was reduced by 557 million pounds, as chain speeds have been and are expected to remain slower, and carcass weights are lighter as well," she said. "The quarterly price projections saw an increase compared to last month's report, as hog prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $77 (up $1 from last month's estimate), hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $67 (up $2 from last month's estimate), hog prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $64 (unchanged from last month's estimate) and hog prices in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $69 (up $1 from last month's report). Pork imports for 2025 were decreased by 9 million pounds, but pork exports for 2025 were increased by 9 million pounds."

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Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, Aug. 12, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Tuesday's August WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2025-26
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul	2024-25
Corn	16,742	15,991	16,323	15,705	15,705	14,867
Soybeans	4,292	4,371	4,439	4,290	4,335	4,366
All Wheat	1,927	1,925	1,950	1,879	1,929	1,971
Winter	1,355	1,349	1,374	1,328	1,345	1,349
HRW	769	758	774	748	755	770
SRW	339	338	345	336	337	342
White	247	252	260	243	254	236
Other Spring	484	497	515	478	504	542
Durum	87	80	90	74	80	80
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2025-26 (WASDE)
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul	2024
Corn	188.8	184.3	188.1	181.0	181.0	179.3
Soybeans	53.6	53.0	53.7	52.0	52.5	50.7
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2024-25
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul
Corn	1,305	1,318	1,340	1,290	1,340
Soybeans	330	344	355	305	350
Wheat	851	850	851	845	851
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2025-26
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul
Corn	2,117	1,916	2,333	1,666	1,660
Soybeans	290	359	416	310	310
Wheat	869	885	920	860	890
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2024-25
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul
Corn	283.1	285.6	290.0	282.6	284.2
Soybeans	125.2	125.0	126.7	124.1	125.1
Wheat	262.7	263.6	264.0	263.0	263.6
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2025-26
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul
Corn	282.5	279.1	283.9	272.6	272.1
Soybeans	124.9	127.9	129.0	126.5	126.1
Wheat	260.1	261.8	263.5	260.1	261.5

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