DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A lot of moving parts are forecast across North America for the next couple of weeks. There are a pair of troughs in central North America, one in Canada and the other in the U.S. Plains. Ridges are found in eastern Canada and in the North Pacific. The Canadian portion of the trough will guide the U.S. portion northeast early this week while the North Pacific ridge shifts westward to the Aleutians and allows another trough to dive into western Canada midweek.

Another will completely replace the ridge in the North Pacific at the end of the week while a ridge builds over the Eastern U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

That eastern ridge is forecast to shift westward early next week into the middle of the continent, forcing a trough to develop across the East.

The U.S. and European models are similar despite all the moving pieces. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A stalled front in the northwestern Corn Belt will produce scattered showers this weekend. It is likely to spread through the U.S. next week, but could be slow to do so. Temperatures will be hot ahead of the front, but should fall closer to normal behind it, maybe even below normal.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...120 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA, AND DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW SUN...22 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...MILWAUKEE, WI 6.91 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A lot of moving parts are forecast across North America for the next couple of weeks. There are a pair of troughs in central North America, one in Canada and the other in the U.S. Plains. Ridges are found in eastern Canada and in the North Pacific. The Canadian portion of the trough will guide the U.S. portion northeast early this week while the North Pacific ridge shifts westward to the Aleutians and allows another trough to dive into western Canada midweek.

Another will completely replace the ridge in the North Pacific at the end of the week while a ridge builds over the Eastern U.S. That ridge is forecast to shift westward early next week into the middle of the continent, forcing a trough to develop across the East.

The U.S. and European models are similar despite all the moving pieces. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A stalled front in the northwestern Corn Belt will produce scattered showers this weekend. It is likely to spread through the U.S. next week, but could be slow to do so. Temperatures will be hot ahead of the front, but should fall closer to normal behind it, maybe even below normal.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Additional rain fell near the Canadian border over the weekend and more will fall across these areas on Monday as well. An additional front will move in midweek and bring sporadic showers into the weekend as it stalls. The rain is favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but could impact wheat quality and harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought scattered showers and areas of heavy rain and severe weather over the weekend.

Significant wind damage was recorded in Nebraska and Kansas. The front continues to slowly progress through the region Monday and Tuesday as well.

Sporadic showers may develop throughout the rest of the week before the next front moves in this weekend. Temperatures will be rising ahead of this front and could be stressful to some areas that are still on the drier side.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front has been working through the region this weekend, bringing some areas of heavy rain and severe weather. Flooding has been an issue in several areas from northern Missouri into southern Wisconsin. The responsible front will continue to slowly push east this week, bringing more rain eastward to some drier areas. Another front will move into northwestern areas later this week and stall a couple of days before moving eastward next week. Most areas should get chances for at least moderate rainfall over the next week to 10 days, helping with filling corn and soybeans. However, areas of flooding could cause issues as well.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Some isolated showers fell across the region this weekend, but most areas were dry.

Showers will increase this week as a front slowly sags through the region and largely stalls, continuing showers into next week. With the region continuing to edge toward harvest, rainfall will become less and less important for building yield and more of a hindrance to harvest. The tropics are also starting to become more alive and will need to be watched, though no immediate impacts are forecast for at least the next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Dry conditions and rising temperatures continue to bring spring wheat closer to maturity as harvest starts to rapidly increase and winter wheat finishes up. Only limited chances for rain are in the forecast this week to slow down that progress.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Areas of heavy rain over the last week have been favorable for later-developing crops, but has been a negative factor for maturing and early harvest in other areas. Those across the north and east have seen beneficial rainfall to reduce drought and could make for another cutting of hay as we see more rainfall chances coming through this week and weekend in three separate waves of showers. It should also help to battle the wildfires across the north.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): It was drier but colder this weekend as some areas of frost were noted across the south. That may have had some impact on early-developing wheat in a few spots, but overall should not have been all that damaging. Spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. It will be drier for the next week, but we could see another front move in next week with showers across the south.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Colder temperatures this weekend led to widespread frosts and some freezes. Another front should bring another round of cold temperatures later this week and weekend. Wheat should still be vegetative and not be all that impacted from the cold, but will be heading later this month and is in need of some rainfall.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It was largely dry over the weekend with some spotty showers in the northeast. Though a couple of fronts will move through this week, showers will be very limited. Temperatures are forecast to be warmer this week as well, which will put stress on filling corn, but be favorable for the remaining wheat harvest.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It was hotter and drier over the weekend, favoring wheat harvest, but continues to be concerning for filling corn. A front will move through on Monday with limited showers and another could do the same this weekend, but finding good weather has been tough for corn and sunflowers this year.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front moved through Western Australia with showers over the weekend, favorable for building soil moisture there. The front will lose its strength moving through eastern areas early this week though.

Another front will do something similar later this week. Though wheat conditions are improving in the west, they've been more stagnant and fair in the east. Wheat and canola in the southeast should get into their reproductive stages later this month and could use some more rain in which to do so.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought needed rainfall to the North China Plain this weekend, which has endured bouts of hot and dry conditions throughout the season. The front responsible will continue showers in portions of central China for the rest of the week. Another disturbance is forecast for late week with some more favorable rain chances for filling corn and soybeans. Areas in the northeast have had more consistent rainfall and variable temperatures, with largely favorable weather for corn and soybeans there.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers west. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Monday, south Tuesday-Wednesday, north Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal south and near to above normal north Thursday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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