USDA Reports Preview

A series of hefty yield estimates from private firms over the first week of August have sunk corn and soybean futures to multi-month lows. At 11 a.m. CDT on Tuesday, Aug. 12, USDA will throw its hat into the ring when it releases its August Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

CORN

After chopping for much of late spring, the corn market took a turn lower in late June, as plentiful rainfall throughout the Grain Belt has increased bearish yield thoughts among traders who have slowly but surely eroded the December market down toward $4, briefly trading below that level on Aug. 6 before bargain hunters stepped in.

When USDA releases its latest WASDE report next Tuesday, the corn yield could very well be the first thing most traders turn to. This last week has featured a plethora of estimates hitting the newswires, with most ranging from 185 bushels per acre (bpa) up to 189 bpa, well above the USDA trendline at 181 bpa. I, for one, would be surprised if USDA was this lofty on its yield estimate next week. An increase given the crop's condition at this point seems very likely, but USDA may roll it out piece by piece, especially given last year's late-season weather, which trimmed the top end off yields. I look for a number around 182 bpa to 183 bpa from USDA. The Dow Jones pre-report survey of 17 firms seems to agree somewhat, with the average trade guess at 184.3 bpa. But opinion is widely split, with a range of guesses between 181 bpa and 188.1 bpa.

Assuming the 184.3 bpa proves accurate, this would equate to right near a 16-billion-bushel (bb) U.S. corn crop, a record by a wide margin. Looking down the balance sheet, analysts are surprisingly bullish in my mind for the old-crop corn carryout/new-crop beginning stocks, with the average trade guess at 1.318 bb. I wish I was that optimistic, but judging by the collapse of the old- to new-crop futures spreads, I can't help but wonder if there is truly more corn available through the countryside. That being said, perhaps USDA will wait until the September stocks report to make large revisions there, if any.

An additional demand piece to look out for next Tuesday could be 2025-26 corn exports; USDA estimated 2.675 bb in July, but sales to date are more than double the same point in 2024. It seems USDA is notoriously cautious at times about its export estimates, so an unchanged figure wouldn't surprise me. But it may be a place where some of the added supply could be offset.

The bottom line 2025-26 ending stocks have an average trade guess of 1.916 bb, according to Dow Jones, which would be a 256-million-bushel (mb) increase from USDA's estimate in July, largely because of the increased yield.

For the world corn market, Dow Jones expects to see increases to both old- and new-crop world stocks, with a potential increase in the latter likely to be the result of higher U.S. production. For the 2024-25 season, Brazil's corn production will still be of interest to traders. USDA raised its estimate 2 million metric tons (mmt) to 132 mmt in the July WASDE, but estimates from local Brazilian agencies still suggest to me the true crop size could potentially be larger.

SOYBEANS

If you'd have asked me about the soybean market in mid-June, I would have responded with a fairly high degree of bullish optimism that, depending on where the yield ended up and given the breath of fresh air provided to the oil and crush markets by the EPA mandate proposals, the market had the potential to enter a fairly tight stocks situation by 2026. While the jury is still out on the 2025 yield, the slackening pace of new-crop exports due to large South American supplies and China's subsequent absence from the U.S. market has certainly thrown more doubt into the mix for the upcoming marketing year. This is apparent in the November futures price action since challenging calendar-year highs in mid-June, collapsing below $10 for the first time since early April.

For Tuesday's WASDE, average estimates from firms surveyed by Dow Jones are calling for a 4.371-bb soybean crop, with a yield guess of 53 bpa, a half-bushel increase from USDA's already record estimate of 52.5 bpa. With 69% of the U.S. soybean crop rated good to excellent as of Aug. 3 and the forecast through August looking decent for pod-filling, I think a slight increase in the yield is reasonable to expect. But I imagine USDA will be conservative, with the rest of August still ahead of us.

For the U.S. stocks situation, the average estimate for 2024-25 ending stocks is calling for 344 mb, which would be a 6-mb decrease from USDA's July estimate. Given that both the soybean crush and export programs are on target to hit their marketing-year goals, I don't see any way for a stocks increase, barring a reduction in residual usage. That, to me, is simply USDA signaling there was a miss on 2024 soybean production and/or beginning supply.

Taking these potential revisions into account, the bottom line 2025-26 soybean carryout would land just under 350 mb, assuming no new-crop demand changes are made. Analysts in the Dow Jones survey see stocks slightly higher, however, at 360 mb, perhaps penciling in another cut to new-crop exports. However, I personally remain hesitant to do so this early.

In the soybean market, Tuesday's report should be a quiet event. With the Dow Jones survey expecting old-crop stocks to hold steady given South American harvests are concluded at this point. For the new-crop 2025-26 season, stocks are expected to increase from the 126.1-mmt July figure, largely as a result of higher U.S. production and stocks.

WHEAT

Wheat markets have remained under pressure through summer of 2025 as world production prospects improved drastically from the early days of the calendar year. With a strong U.S. winter wheat crop (despite lower acreage) painting the picture of another year of more-than-adequate wheat stocks in the U.S. As a result, September Kansas City futures traded to their lowest price for a most-active contract since September of 2020 on Aug. 5 but have since rebounded on bargain buying interest.

For Tuesday's WASDE and Crop Production reports, USDA will attempt to fine-tune the winter wheat crops around the globe, while also looking at the impending U.S. spring wheat crop. The average trade estimate for 2025 winter wheat production in the U.S. is 1.349 bb, which would be up 4 mb from the July estimate and imply a winter wheat yield of 54.3 bpa, assuming no change in acreage figures. This would be the second-largest U.S. winter wheat yield on record behind 2016.

For the U.S. spring wheat crop, weekly USDA conditions show a large divergence between great eastern crops and relatively poor western crops across the Northern Plains, with the total average good-to-excellent rating to begin August of 48% sharply lower than the 74% rating a year ago. Still, USDA is estimating the second-highest spring wheat yield on record, behind last year. Analysts do expect the top end of that estimate to decline slightly in Tuesday's reports, with the average production estimate of 497 mb implying a yield of 51 mb. As a result, total wheat production in the U.S. for 2025 is expected to decline by 4 mb to 5 mb to 1.925 bb.

For U.S. wheat stocks implications, there may be some fine-tuning by USDA, but the 2024-25 wheat stocks figure of 851 mb should be accurate at this point. As for the new-crop balance sheet, analysts are expecting a slight cut to 2025-26 U.S. wheat stocks as a result of the aforementioned production decrease. Exports for the new season may be a category to watch, as well, for Tuesday, as the new-crop book is off to a good start with commitments up 21% from the same point in 2024 as of the end of July.

For the world wheat balance sheet, again, the old-crop season should be just about put to rest at this point, and most of the focus will be on the 2025-26 season. The Dow Jones survey shows analysts, on average, are expecting a slight uptick in world wheat stocks. Regions of interest will be the European Union as well as Russia, where harvests are still ongoing. But yield data thus far should allow for a higher accuracy to production estimates from USDA. It is worth noting that USDA is already estimating a notable 12% improvement to EU wheat production from 2024 as of the July WASDE.

Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, Aug. 12, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Tuesday's August WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2025-26
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul	2024-25
Corn		15,991	16,323	15,705	15,705	14,867
Soybeans		4,371	4,439	4,290	4,335	4,366
All Wheat		1,925	1,950	1,879	1,929	1,971
Winter		1,349	1,374	1,328	1,345	1,349
HRW		758	774	748	755	770
SRW		338	345	336	337	342
White		252	260	243	254	236
Other Spring		497	515	478	504	542
Durum		80	90	74	80	80
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2025-26 (WASDE)
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul	2024
Corn		184.3	188.1	181.0	181.0	179.3
Soybeans		53.0	53.7	52.0	52.5	50.7
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2024-25
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul
Corn		1,318	1,340	1,290	1,340
Soybeans		344	355	305	350
Wheat		850	851	845	851
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2025-26
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul
Corn		1,916	2,333	1,666	1,660
Soybeans		359	416	310	310
Wheat		885	920	860	890
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2024-25
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul
Corn		285.6	290.0	282.6	284.2
Soybeans		125.0	126.7	124.1	125.1
Wheat		276.1	364.0	263.0	263.6
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2025-26
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	Jul
Corn		279.1	283.9	272.6	272.1
Soybeans		127.9	129.0	126.5	126.1
Wheat		261.8	263.5	260.1	261.5

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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