Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Good weather in the Corn Belt despite a short break in the active weather, areas of dryness in the Black Sea region and central China, and increased rainfall in parts of the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEST

A front has moved through the Midwest, bringing much cooler temperatures and a period of dryness that may last through a good portion of next week. Precipitation may hold off until a front moves through late next week and weekend. The drier period is not a concern as soil moisture remains in good shape for most areas. Temperatures will rise later next week, but are not forecast to become too high to be overly stressful.

CONTINUED SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures have fallen significantly in the Central and Southern Plains behind a front and will be cool into next week. Temperatures will rise later next week. Showers will move through in a couple of waves this weekend and next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

DAILY SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the Northern Plains on a daily basis through next week, though organized severe weather is less likely. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August. Some areas of heavy rain could degrade quality.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH DELTA

A stronger front has moved into the Delta with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front will stall near the Gulf coast where showers and thunderstorms will continue into early next week, at least for southern areas. Maturing crops are finding drier conditions in which to do so, but stress at the end of the life cycle could have been high as crop conditions have been falling here recently.

LIMITED SHOWERS, DROUGHT EXPANSION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Temperatures have been hot while any showers were isolated in the Pacific Northwest this week, causing undue stress to filling spring wheat but being overall favorable for harvesting winter wheat. Significant changes to this forecast are not expected in early August, stressing spring wheat and specialty crops through the rest of their life cycles.

A RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES LIKELY TOO LATE

Scattered showers return on Friday in Alberta, spreading eastward through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend with another system moving through. Additional showers will move through the region in a couple of waves next week as well. Whether scattered showers develop or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

FRONTS BECOMING MORE COMMON IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front is moving into southern Brazil with showers this weekend as the weather pattern promotes more fronts moving into the south in August. Rain could disrupt what remains of the corn harvest, though the percentage of the crop yet to harvest has been steadily decreasing. The moisture will help with winter wheat that will be heading over the next couple of weeks.

MILD AND SHOWERY IN EUROPE

Showers continue to develop over central and eastern Europe through the weekend. Another system will move through next week with scattered showers, but has been trending drier and more northward. Recent rain has been helpful for maintaining or building some soil moisture for summer crops, but possibly causing some delays in harvest and quality issues for what remains of winter wheat.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

Hotter and drier conditions across the eastern Black Sea region have been stressful for pollinating to filling corn. A system lifting northward from the Black Sea may increase showers in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia Sunday and Monday, but would likely be scattered and not the steady rainfall that the region needs. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for much of the region.

RECENT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA

A system continues across eastern Australia with showers this weekend. Another front will move through western areas this weekend, but will have a hard time producing showers as it moves through the east next week. The weather pattern stays active with fronts moving through in August. The recent increase in rainfall has been helpful for reducing drought and building soil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and canola that will be getting into their reproductive stages over the next few weeks.

CENTRAL CHINA WITH LIMITED SHOWER OPPORTUNITIES

Central China, and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than other areas of the country this season. A front moving through next week could increase some moisture in the region. But if it disappoints, the region will continue to be drier. Meanwhile, conditions in northeast China's corn and soybean areas has been and continues to be favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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