DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is weak, but extends from the Southern Plains up through western Canada. There is a trough in eastern Canada with another in the Gulf of Alaska.

The core of the ridge will continue to shift toward the Four Corners area this weekend and next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The northern extension of the ridge in western Canada will shift eastward through Canada next week. The Gulf of Alaska trough will continue to send energy through the U.S. this weekend and next week, itself moving into Canada next week. That should prevent the ridge from taking over the continent and becoming too strong. All of the movement should continue to provide opportunities for precipitation across the U.S. and Canada.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but they differ with both precipitation and temperatures for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may still be near the Gulf Coast where scattered showers may occur next week. Waves of showers will be possible in the Plains next week and a front will move across the country late next week and weekend. Temperatures will be rising ahead of that front from the Southern Plains to the Midwest, but should fall behind it going into the following week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...113 AT TOPOCK, AZ AND 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW THU...31 AT LEADVILLE, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...ATLANTIC CITY, NJ 3.03 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is weak, but extends from the Southern Plains up through western Canada. There is a trough in eastern Canada with another in the Gulf of Alaska.

The core of the ridge will continue to shift toward the Four Corners area this weekend and next week. The northern extension of the ridge in western Canada will shift eastward through Canada next week. The Gulf of Alaska trough will continue to send energy through the U.S. this weekend and next week, itself moving into Canada next week. That should prevent the ridge from taking over the continent and becoming too strong. All of the movement should continue to provide opportunities for precipitation across the U.S. and Canada.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but they differ with both precipitation and temperatures for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may still be near the Gulf Coast where scattered showers may occur next week. Waves of showers will be possible in the Plains next week and a front will move across the country late next week and weekend. Temperatures will be rising ahead of that front from the Southern Plains to the Midwest, but should fall behind it going into the following week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the region on a daily basis through next week, though organized severe weather is less likely. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August.

Some areas of heavy rain could degrade quality.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures have fallen significantly behind a front and will be cool into next week. Temperatures will rise later next week. Showers will return in a couple of waves this weekend and next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front has moved through, bringing much cooler temperatures and a period of dryness that may last through a good portion of next week. Precipitation may hold off until a front moves through late next week and weekend. The drier period is not a concern as soil moisture remains in good shape for most areas. Temperatures will rise later next week, but are not forecast to become too high to be overly stressful.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A stronger front has moved into the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front will stall near the Gulf coast where showers and thunderstorms would continue into early next week, at least for southern areas. Maturing crops are finding drier conditions in which to do so, but stress at the end of the life cycle could have been high as crop conditions have been falling here recently.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Temperatures have been hot while any showers were isolated this week, causing undue stress to filling spring wheat but being overall favorable for harvesting winter wheat. Significant changes to this forecast are not expected in early August, stressing spring wheat and specialty crops through the rest of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers return on Friday in Alberta, spreading eastward over the weekend with another system moving through. Additional showers will move through the region in a couple of waves next week as well. Whether scattered showers develop or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front is moving into southern areas with showers this weekend as the weather pattern promotes more fronts moving into the south in August. Rain could disrupt what remains of the corn harvest, though the percentage of the crop yet to harvest has been steadily decreasing. The moisture will help with winter wheat that will be heading over the next couple of weeks.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A front is moving through Friday with scattered showers and another is forecast for next week as the pattern starts to get a little more active going into the end of winter. Winter wheat is still vegetative but should be heading in August, when soil moisture will be more important.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers continue to develop over the central and east through the weekend. Another system will move through next week with scattered showers, but has been trending drier and more northward. Recent rain has been helpful for maintaining or building some soil moisture for summer crops, but possibly causing some delays in harvest and quality issues for what remains of winter wheat.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions across the east especially have been stressful for pollinating to filling corn. A system lifting northward from the Black Sea may increase showers in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia Sunday and Monday, but would likely be scattered and not the steady rainfall that the region needs. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for much of the region.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system continues across eastern areas with showers this weekend. Another front will move through western areas this weekend, but will have a hard time producing showers as it moves through the east next week. The weather pattern stays active with fronts moving through in August. The recent increase in rainfall has been helpful for reducing drought and building soil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and canola that will be getting into their reproductive stages over the next few weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central China, and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than other areas of the country this season. A front moving through next week could increase some moisture in the region. But if it disappoints, the region will continue to be drier. Meanwhile, conditions in northeast China's corn and soybean areas has been and continues to be favorable.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers south. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday.

Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers south Sunday-Monday.

Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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