DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is weak, but extends from the Southern Plains up through western Canada. There is a trough in eastern Canada with another in the Gulf of Alaska.

The core of the ridge will continue to shift toward the Four Corners area this weekend and next week. The northern extension of the ridge in western Canada will shift eastward through Canada next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The Gulf of Alaska trough will continue to send energy through the U.S. this weekend and next week, itself moving into Canada next week. That should prevent the ridge from taking over the continent and becoming too strong. All of the movement should continue to provide opportunities for precipitation across the U.S. and Canada.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but they differ with both precipitation and temperatures for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may still be near the Gulf Coast where scattered showers may occur early next week. A small system will possibly move through the Corn Belt early next week with scattered showers. Another system may be possible in the middle of next week with more scattered showers through the Corn Belt. Mild to cool temperatures should be in place east of the Rockies early in the week, but may rise from the Southern Plains to the Midwest for a few days before another front moves through next weekend into the following week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...114 AT TOPOCK, AZ

LOW WED...29 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...DETROIT, MI 1.72 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is weak, but extends from the Southern Plains up through western Canada. There is a trough in eastern Canada with another in the Gulf of Alaska.

The core of the ridge will continue to shift toward the Four Corners area this weekend and next week. The northern extension of the ridge in western Canada will shift eastward through Canada next week. The Gulf of Alaska trough will continue to send energy through the U.S. this weekend and next week, itself moving into Canada next week. That should prevent the ridge from taking over the continent and becoming too strong. All of the movement should continue to provide opportunities for precipitation across the U.S. and Canada.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but they differ with both precipitation and temperatures for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may still be near the Gulf Coast where scattered showers may occur early next week. A small system will possibly move through the Corn Belt early next week with scattered showers. Another system may be possible in the middle of next week with more scattered showers through the Corn Belt. Mild to cool temperatures should be in place east of the Rockies early in the week, but may rise from the Southern Plains to the Midwest for a few days before another front moves through next weekend into the following week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the region on a daily basis through next week, though organized severe weather is less likely. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August.

Some areas of heavy rain could degrade quality.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front continues to slowly drop through the Southern Plains over the next couple of days, with showers waning as it goes through. Temperatures are falling significantly behind the front and will be cool into next week. Showers will return in a couple of waves this weekend and next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front continues to push through with more scattered showers and a significant drop in temperatures on Thursday. Areas of severe weather and heavy rain have been common as this front has moved through, keeping most areas quite moist. Cooler temperatures continue into next week, but will rise by late next week.

Precipitation chances will likely return next week. Conditions are still highly favorable for corn and soybeans despite the recent heat and severe weather.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A stronger front will move into the region Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front may stall in the region where showers and thunderstorms would continue into early next week, at least for southern areas. Maturing crops are finding drier conditions in which to do so, but stress at the end of the life cycle could have been high as crop conditions have been falling here recently.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Temperatures have been hot while any showers were isolated this week, causing undue stress to filling spring wheat but being overall favorable for harvesting winter wheat. Significant changes to this forecast are not expected in early August, stressing spring wheat and specialty crops through the rest of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers return on Friday in Alberta, spreading eastward over the weekend with another system moving through. Additional showers will move through the region in a couple of waves next week as well. Whether scattered showers develop or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will move into southern areas with more showers this weekend as the weather pattern promotes more fronts moving into the south. Rain could disrupt what remains of the corn harvest, though the percentage of the crop yet to harvest has been steadily decreasing. The moisture will help with winter wheat that will be heading in August.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A front will move through Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and another is forecast for next week as the pattern starts to get a little more active going into the end of winter. Winter wheat is still vegetative but should be heading in August, when soil moisture will be more important.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers continue to spin through much of the continent for the rest of the week and weekend, though Spain is drier. Another system will move through next week and could bring some severe weather. The rain will be helpful for maintaining or building some soil moisture for summer crops, but possibly causing some delays in harvest and quality issues for what remains of winter wheat.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been favoring the western end of the region this week, with hotter and drier conditions across the east.

That should be beneficial for maturing wheat and harvest. But not for corn, which is still pretty dry across most areas in Ukraine and southwestern Russia.

A system lifting northward from the Black Sea may increase showers in eastern and southwestern Russia this weekend, but would likely be scattered and not the steady rainfall that the region needs.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system continues across eastern areas with showers to end the week. Another front will move through western areas this weekend, but will have a hard time producing showers as it moves through the east next week. The weather pattern stays active with fronts moving through in August. The recent increase in rainfall has been helpful for reducing drought and building soil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and canola that will be getting into their reproductive stages over the next few weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central China, and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than others this season. Showers are forecast to be sparse on the North China Plain through next week. Meanwhile, conditions in northeast China's corn and soybean areas has been and continues to be favorable.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures below normal through Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Scattered showers south Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday, near to above normal north and below normal south Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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