Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The end of a heatwave in the U.S. with areas of heavy rain moving through, areas of dryness in the Black Sea region and central China, and increased rainfall in parts of the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

STRONG FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP THROUGH MIDWEST

A slow-moving front continues to push through the Midwest over the next couple of days with more scattered showers and a significant drop in temperatures. More severe weather and areas of heavy rain will be possible as the front sags through. Conditions are still mostly favorable for corn and soybeans despite the recent heat and severe weather. Showers are likely to return next week.

STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front is slowly dropping through the Central and Southern Plains over the next couple of days, with showers waning as it gets into the Southern Plains. Temperatures are falling significantly behind the front and will be cool into next week. Showers will return to northern areas in a couple of waves this weekend and next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

DAILY SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the Northern Plains on a daily basis through next week, though organized severe weather is less likely. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August. Some areas of heavy rain could degrade quality.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND HEAT IN THE DELTA UNTIL FRONT MOVES IN

Isolated showers continue to develop in the heat across the Delta for the next day or two. A stronger front will move into the region on Thursday and Friday with more scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front may stall in the region where showers and thunderstorms would continue into early next week, at least for southern areas.

LIMITED SHOWERS, DROUGHT EXPANSION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Temperatures are hot in the Pacific Northwest while any showers are isolated this week, causing undue stress to filling spring wheat but being overall favorable for harvesting winter wheat. Significant changes to this forecast are not expected in early August, stressing spring wheat and specialty crops through the rest of their life cycles.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES MAY BE TOO LATE

Much of the Canadian Prairies will be drier until Friday or the weekend, when another system will move through. Additional showers will move through the region in a couple of waves next week as well. Whether scattered showers develop or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

FRONTS BECOMING MORE COMMON IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front will move into southern Brazil with more showers this weekend as the weather pattern starts to become a bit more active with fronts moving into the south. Rain could disrupt what remains of the corn harvest, though the percentage of the crop yet to harvest has been steadily decreasing.

MILD AND SHOWERY IN EUROPE

Showers continue to spin through much of Europe for the rest of the week and weekend, though they probably will not form over Spain. Another system will move through next week and could bring some severe weather. The rain will be helpful for maintaining or building some soil moisture for summer crops, but possibly causing some delays for the winter wheat harvest. Corn areas should find the conditions mostly favorable, while the rain could cause delays or quality issues for the remaining winter wheat harvest.

HEAT AND DRYNESS CONTINUES FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers have been favoring the western end of the Black Sea region this week, with hotter and drier conditions across the east. That should be beneficial for maturing wheat and harvest. But not for corn, which is still pretty dry across most areas in Ukraine and southwestern Russia. Showers may increase in southwestern Russia this weekend, but would likely be scattered and not the steady rainfall that the region needs.

RECENT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA

A system continues across eastern Australia with showers to end the week. Another front will move through western areas this weekend, but will have a hard time producing showers as it moves through the east next week. The weather pattern stays active with fronts frequently moving through in August. The recent increase in rainfall has been helpful for reducing drought and building soil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and canola that will be getting into their reproductive stages over the next few weeks.

CENTRAL CHINA WITH LIMITED SHOWER OPPORTUNITIES

Central China and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than others this season. Showers are forecast to be sparse on the North China Plain through next week. Meanwhile, conditions in northeast China's corn and soybean areas has been and continues to be favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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