DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is weakening across the U.S., but shifting more into the Plains, while a trough moves into eastern Canada. There is another trough in the Gulf of Alaska. The core of the ridge will continue to shift toward the Four Corners area this weekend and next week as the eastern Canada trough eats away at what remains of it across the Eastern U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The northern extension of the ridge in the Canadian Prairies will shift eastward through Canada next week. The Gulf of Alaska trough will continue to send energy through the U.S. this weekend and next week, itself moving into Canada next week. That should prevent the ridge from taking over the continent and becoming too strong. All of the movement should continue to provide opportunities for precipitation across the U.S. and Canada.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but they differ in the extended range. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may still be near the Gulf Coast where scattered showers may occur early next week. A small system will possibly move through the Corn Belt early next week with scattered showers. Another system may be possible in the middle of next week with more scattered showers through the Corn Belt. Mild to cool temperatures should be in place east of the Rockies early in the week, but may rise from the Southern Plains to the Midwest for a few days before another front moves through next weekend into the following week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...114 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND TOPOCK, AZ

LOW TUE...26 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...ASHEVILLE, NC 1.95 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is weakening across the U.S., but shifting more into the Plains, while a trough moves into eastern Canada. There is another trough in the Gulf of Alaska. The core of the ridge will continue to shift toward the Four Corners area this weekend and next week as the eastern Canada trough eats away at what remains of it across the Eastern U.S. The northern extension of the ridge in the Canadian Prairies will shift eastward through Canada next week. The Gulf of Alaska trough will continue to send energy through the U.S. this weekend and next week, itself moving into Canada next week. That should prevent the ridge from taking over the continent and becoming too strong. All of the movement should continue to provide opportunities for precipitation across the U.S. and Canada.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but they differ in the extended range. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may still be near the Gulf Coast where scattered showers may occur early next week. A small system will possibly move through the Corn Belt early next week with scattered showers. Another system may be possible in the middle of next week with more scattered showers through the Corn Belt. Mild to cool temperatures should be in place east of the Rockies early in the week, but may rise from the Southern Plains to the Midwest for a few days before another front moves through next weekend into the following week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the region on a daily basis through next week, though organized severe weather is less likely. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August.

Some areas of heavy rain could degrade quality.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is slowly dropping through the region over the next couple of days, with showers waning as it gets into the Southern Plains. Temperatures are falling significantly behind the front and will be cool into next week. Showers will return to northern areas in a couple of waves this weekend and next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front continues to push through over the next couple of days with more scattered showers and a significant drop in temperatures. More severe weather and areas of heavy rain will be possible as the front sags through. Conditions are still mostly favorable for corn and soybeans despite the recent heat and severe weather.

Showers are likely to return next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers continue to develop in the heat for the next day or two. A stronger front will move into the region Thursday and Friday with more scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front may stall in the region where showers and thunderstorms would continue into early next week, at least for southern areas.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Temperatures are hot while any showers are isolated this week, causing undue stress to filling spring wheat but being overall favorable for harvesting winter wheat. Significant changes to this forecast are not expected in early August, stressing spring wheat and specialty crops through the rest of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Much of the region will be drier until Friday or the weekend, when another system will move through. Additional showers will move through the region in a couple of waves next week as well. Whether scattered showers develop or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will move into southern areas with more showers this weekend as the weather pattern starts to become a bit more active with fronts moving into the south. Rain could disrupt what remains of the corn harvest, though the percentage of the crop yet to harvest has been steadily decreasing.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A front will move through Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and another is forecast for next week as the pattern starts to get a little more active going into the end of winter. Winter wheat is still vegetative but should be heading in August, when soil moisture will be more important.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers continue to spin through much of the continent for the rest of the week and weekend, though they probably will not form over Spain. Another system will move through next week and could bring some severe weather. The rain will be helpful for maintaining or building some soil moisture for summer crops, but possibly causing some delays for the winter wheat harvest. Corn areas should find the conditions mostly favorable, while the rain could cause delays or quality issues for the remaining winter wheat harvest.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been favoring the western end of the region this week, with hotter and drier conditions across the east.

That should be beneficial for maturing wheat and harvest. But not for corn, which is still pretty dry across most areas in Ukraine and southwestern Russia.

Showers may increase in southwestern Russia this weekend, but would likely be scattered and not the steady rainfall that the region needs.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system continues across eastern areas with showers to end the week. Another front will move through western areas this weekend, but will have a hard time producing showers as it moves through the east next week. The weather pattern stays active with fronts frequently moving through in August. The recent increase in rainfall has been helpful for reducing drought and building soil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and canola that will be getting into their reproductive stages over the next few weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central China, and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than others this season. Showers are forecast to be sparse on the North China Plain through next week. Meanwhile, conditions in northeast China's corn and soybean areas has been and continues to be favorable.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north and west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures falling Wednesday, below normal north and above normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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