DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of the U.S. with a trough in Hudson Bay and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will shift more to the Plains throughout the week while the Hudson Bay trough moves southeast into eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The Gulf of Alaska trough will send energy through the ridge this weekend and next week, preventing the ridge from taking over the continent and becoming too strong.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but they differ in the extended range. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may still be near the Gulf Coast this weekend where scattered showers may occur into next week. A system will move into the Northern Plains late this week with showers possibly moving through the Corn Belt early next week.

Another system may be possible in the middle of next week with more scattered showers through the Corn Belt. Mild to cool temperatures should be in place east of the Rockies this weekend, but may rise next week from the Southern Plains to the Midwest for a few days between storm systems as another system likely moves through late next week and weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...114 AT TOLLESON, AZ AND DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...22 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...DETROIT, MI 2.68 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of the U.S. with a trough in Hudson Bay and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will shift more to the Plains throughout the week while the Hudson Bay trough moves southeast into eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. The Gulf of Alaska trough will send energy through the ridge this weekend and next week, preventing the ridge from taking over the continent and becoming too strong.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but they differ in the extended range. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may still be near the Gulf Coast this weekend where scattered showers may occur into next week. A system will move into the Northern Plains late this week with showers possibly moving through the Corn Belt early next week.

Another system may be possible in the middle of next week with more scattered showers through the Corn Belt. Mild to cool temperatures should be in place east of the Rockies this weekend, but may rise next week from the Southern Plains to the Midwest for a few days between storm systems as another system likely moves through late next week and weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through over the weekend and severe storms were noted in several areas on Monday. A front continues to slowly move through with more scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Another system will be moving through late week and weekend with more. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August. Some areas of heavy rain and severe weather could degrade quality.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will slowly drop through the region this week, with showers waning as it gets into the Southern Plains, but with temperatures significantly falling. Showers will return to northern areas in a couple of waves this weekend and next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front will push through over the next couple of days with more scattered showers and a significant drop in temperatures. Severe storms occurred in Minnesota and Iowa with the front on Monday, and may have technically met the definition of a derecho, but reports early this morning indicate that the damage was not as widespread as feared. More severe weather will be possible as the front sags through, though. Conditions are still mostly favorable for corn and soybeans despite the recent heat and severe weather.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers over the weekend continue this week as temperatures remain hot. A stronger front will move into the region later in the week with more scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front may stall in the region where showers and thunderstorms would continue into early next week, at least for southern areas.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Temperatures are hot while any showers are isolated this week, causing undue stress to filling spring wheat but being overall favorable for harvesting winter wheat. Significant changes to this forecast are not expected, stressing spring wheat and specialty crops through the rest of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, but missed key drier areas across the northern end of the region. Areas farther south saw some good rainfall that was highly beneficial with crops continuing to fill and edging toward harvest. Though some showers will be possible in the southwest for Tuesday, much of the region will be drier until Friday or the weekend, when another system will move through. Whether it has scattered showers or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved into the south over the weekend and brought some areas of heavy rain through Monday, favorable for building soil moisture for winter wheat. A new front will move into southern areas with more showers this weekend as the weather pattern starts to become a bit more active with fronts moving into the south. Rain could disrupt what remains of the corn harvest, though the percentage of the crop yet to harvest has been steadily decreasing.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A front will move through later this week with scattered showers as the pattern starts to get a little more active going into the end of winter. Winter wheat is still vegetative but should be heading in August, when soil moisture will be more important.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers will go pinwheeling through much of the continent throughout the week, though they probably will not form over Spain. The rain will be helpful for maintaining or building some soil moisture for summer crops, but possibly causing some delays for the winter wheat harvest. Corn areas should find the conditions mostly favorable, while the rain could cause delays or quality issues for the remaining winter wheat harvest.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will favor the western end of the region this week, with hotter and drier conditions across the central and east. That should be beneficial for maturing wheat and harvest. But not for corn, which is still pretty dry across most areas in Ukraine and southwestern Russia. Showers may increase in southwestern Russia this weekend, but would likely be scattered and not the steady rainfall that the region needs.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system continues across eastern areas with showers over the next day or two. Another front will move through western areas this weekend with more showers. The recent increase in rainfall has been helpful for reducing the drought and building soil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and canola that will be getting into their reproductive stages over the next few weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central China, and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than others this season. Showers are forecast to be sparse on the North China Plain this week as well. Meanwhile, conditions in northeast China's corn and soybean areas has been and continues to be favorable.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures below normal Sunday, near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal north and above normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Thursday, likely north.

Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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