Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The end of a heatwave in the U.S., but coming with a derecho in Iowa on Monday, areas of dryness in the Black Sea region and central China, and increased rainfall in parts of the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

DERECHO MOVES THROUGH IOWA, HEATWAVE ENDING WITH STRONG FRONT IN THE MIDWEST

A slow-moving front will push through the Midwest over the next couple of days with more scattered showers and a significant drop in temperatures. Severe storms occurred in Minnesota with the front on Monday, and may have technically met the definition of a derecho in Iowa, but reports early this morning indicate that the damage was not as widespread as feared. More severe weather will be possible as the front sags south, though. Conditions are still mostly favorable for corn and soybeans despite the recent heat and severe weather.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

A front will slowly drop through the Central and Southern Plains this week, with showers waning as it gets into the Southern Plains. Temperatures will fall significantly after it moves through, though. Showers will return to northern areas in a couple of waves this weekend and next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

DAILY SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend and severe storms were noted in several areas on Monday. A front continues to slowly move through with more scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Another system will be moving through late week and weekend with more. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August. Some areas of heavy rain and severe weather could degrade quality.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND HEAT IN THE DELTA UNTIL FRONT MOVES IN

Isolated showers over the weekend continue in the Delta this week as temperatures remain hot. A stronger front will move into the region later in the week with more scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front may stall in the region where showers and thunderstorms would continue into early next week, at least for southern areas.

LIMITED SHOWERS, DROUGHT EXPANSION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Temperatures are hot while any showers are isolated in the Pacific Northwest this week, causing undue stress to filling spring wheat but being overall favorable for harvesting winter wheat. Significant changes to this forecast are not expected, stressing spring wheat and specialty crops through the rest of their life cycles in expanding drought.

HAVES AND HAVE-NOTS IN SHOWERY CANADIAN PRAIRIES PATTERN

Scattered showers moved through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but missed key drier areas across the northern end of the region. Areas farther south saw some good rainfall that was highly beneficial with crops continuing to fill and edging toward harvest. Though some showers will be possible in the southwest for Tuesday, much of the region will be drier until Friday or the weekend, when another system will move through. Whether it has scattered showers or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

FRONTS BECOMING MORE COMMON IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend and brought some areas of heavy rain through Monday, favorable for building soil moisture for winter wheat. A new front will move into southern areas with more showers this weekend as the weather pattern starts to become a bit more active with fronts moving into the south. Rain could disrupt what remains of the corn harvest, though the percentage of the crop yet to harvest has been steadily decreasing.

MILDER AND SHOWERY FOR EUROPE

Showers will go pinwheeling through much of Europe throughout the week, though they probably will not form over Spain. The rain will be helpful for maintaining or building some soil moisture for summer crops, but possibly causing some delays for the winter wheat harvest. Corn areas should find the conditions mostly favorable, while the rain could cause delays or quality issues for the remaining winter wheat harvest.

HEAT AND DRYNESS CONTINUES FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers will favor the western end of the Black Sea region this week, with hotter and drier conditions across the central and east. That should be beneficial for maturing wheat and harvest. But not for corn, which is still pretty dry across most areas in Ukraine and southwestern Russia. Showers may increase in southwestern Russia this weekend, but would likely be scattered and not the steady rainfall that the region needs.

RECENT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA

A system continues across eastern Australia with showers over the next day or two. Another front will move through western areas this weekend with more showers. The recent increase in rainfall has been helpful for reducing the drought and building soil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and canola that will be getting into their reproductive stages over the next few weeks.

CENTRAL CHINA DRIER AGAIN THIS WEEK

Central China, and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than others this season. Showers are forecast to be sparse on the North China Plain this week as well. Meanwhile, conditions in northeast China's corn and soybean areas have been and continue to be favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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