DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in northern Canada and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will shift more to the Plains throughout the week while the Canadian trough moves southeast into eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The Alaskan trough will send energy through the ridge this weekend and next week, preventing the ridge from taking over the continent and becoming too strong.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but they differ in the extended range. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may still be near the Gulf Coast this weekend where scattered showers may occur into next week. A system will move into the Northern Plains late this week with showers possibly moving through the Corn Belt early next week.

Another system may be possible mid-late next week with more scattered showers through the Corn Belt. Mild to cool temperatures should be in place east of the Rockies this weekend, but they may rise ahead of the next system early next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...114 AT TOLLESON, AZ

LOW SUN...23 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...COLUMBUS, OH 1.59 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in northern Canada and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will shift more to the Plains throughout the week while the Canadian trough moves southeast into eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. The Alaskan trough will send energy through the ridge this weekend and next week, preventing the ridge from taking over the continent and becoming too strong.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but they differ in the extended range. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may still be near the Gulf Coast this weekend where scattered showers may occur into next week. A system will move into the Northern Plains late this week with showers possibly moving through the Corn Belt early next week.

Another system may be possible mid-late next week with more scattered showers through the Corn Belt. Mild to cool temperatures should be in place east of the Rockies this weekend, but they may rise ahead of the next system early next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through over the weekend. A front will be slowly moving through early this week with more scattered showers and severe weather potential. A derecho is being talked about by the Storm Prediction Center in South Dakota for Monday that will bear watching. Another system will be moving through late week and weekend with more. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August. Some areas of heavy rain and severe weather could degrade quality.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Areas of isolated showers moved through over the weekend, but most areas were hot and dry. A front will slowly drop through the region this week, with showers waning as it gets into the Southern Plains, but with temperatures significantly falling. Showers will return to northern areas in a couple of waves next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front brought widespread showers and thunderstorms to the southern half of the region over the weekend while northwestern areas saw heavy rain on Sunday. Temperatures are rising again and would be stressful, but soil moisture is relatively high in most areas. A slow-moving front will push through this week with more scattered showers and a significant drop in temperatures. A derecho is being talked about by the Storm Prediction Center in Minnesota for Monday and will bear watching.

Conditions are still mostly favorable for corn and soybeans despite the recent heat.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers over the weekend continue this week as temperatures remain hot. A stronger front will move into the region later in the week with more scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front may stall in the region where showers and thunderstorms would continue into early next week, at least for southern areas.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Temperatures should rise this week while any showers would be isolated, causing undue stress to filling spring wheat but being overall favorable for harvesting winter wheat. Significant changes to this forecast are not expected, stressing spring wheat and specialty crops through the rest of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, but missed key drier areas across the northern end of the region.

Areas farther south saw some good rainfall that was highly beneficial with crops continuing to fill and edging toward harvest. Though some showers will be possible in the southwest early this week, much of the region will be drier until Friday or the weekend, when another system will move through. Whether it has scattered showers or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved into the south over the weekend and brought some areas of heavy rain, favorable for building soil moisture for winter wheat. Showers may continue on Monday as well and a new front will move into southern areas with more showers this weekend as the weather pattern starts to become a bit more active with fronts moving into the south. Rain could disrupt what remains of the corn harvest, though the percentage of the crop yet to harvest has been steadily decreasing.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A front brought scattered showers to northern areas over the weekend. Another front will move through later this week as the pattern starts to get a little more active going into the end of winter. Winter wheat is still vegetative but should be heading in August, when soil moisture will be more important.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved across central and eastern areas over the weekend, helpful for maintaining or building some soil moisture for summer crops, but possibly causing some delays for the winter wheat harvest. Showers will go pinwheeling through much of the continent throughout the week, though they probably will not form over Spain. Corn areas should find the conditions mostly favorable, while the rain could cause delays or quality issues for the remaining winter wheat harvest.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will favor the western end of the region this week, with hotter and drier conditions across the central and east. That should be beneficial for maturing wheat and harvest. But not for corn, which is still pretty dry across most areas in Ukraine and southwestern Russia.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system continued across eastern areas with showers over the weekend and another moved into the west as well. That one will bring more showers through the country over the next few days. Another front will move through western areas this weekend with more showers. The recent increase in rainfall has been helpful for reducing the drought and building soil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and canola that will be getting into their reproductive stages over the next few weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across northeast and southern China over the weekend, but left central China drier. Central China, and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than others this season. Showers are forecast to be sparse on the North China Plain this week as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Temperatures above normal through Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Temperatures above normal through Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures below normal Saturday-Sunday, near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal north and above normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday, likely north.

Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers far south Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal north and below normal south Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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