Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued good weather in the Corn Belt with some increased heat but good rainfall and limited drought, areas of dryness in Europe and the Black Sea region, and increased rainfall in parts of the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

HEATWAVE IN MIDWEST CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH RAIN

A front is stalling across the southern half of the Midwest on Friday and will produce scattered showers there through the weekend, easing some of the heat, but not much of it as hot and humid conditions get another boost going into next week. A stronger front will move through in pieces next week, bringing through more scattered showers and thunderstorms and ending the heatwave. Though heat has been and will be intense, overall good soil moisture and rainfall should help to mitigate the stress in most areas.

HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Showers continue along a stalled front around Kansas on Friday and another front should be strong enough to bring in some milder air and showers later next week. The Southern Plains are trending hotter and drier going into August, which may cause flash drought to develop if realized. The Central Plains could still see rainfall coming from disturbances sneaking through a stout ridge, which would be favorable should it occur going into August.

NORTHERN PLAINS FORECAST TO SEE MORE RAINFALL INTO NEXT WEEK

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms have been and continue to move through the Northern Plains through next week. Heavy rain so far this week has led to a significant increase in soil moisture in most areas. A ridge to the south may increase and may force the rainfall to become more limited and temperatures to increase with time. But for now, good growing conditions are expected going into early August.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN DELTA, HEAVIER SOUTH

Isolated showers will remain possible in the Delta through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below normal, but a tropical disturbance moving through the Gulf is producing some heavier rain across the south going into the weekend. Northern areas will continue to have stress with less precipitation. Temperatures will continue to be extremely hot where rain is too sporadic and light. A front may not make it down into the region later next week, but could increase rainfall potential and reduce temperatures anyway.

FEW SHOWERS AND INCREASING HEAT NEXT WEEK FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Temperatures have been milder this week in the Pacific Northwest but will increase next week. Some small disturbances have brought minimal showers through the region this week. More isolated showers will be possible through the next week, but that will not be of much help either. It continues to be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or other specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING MORE RAIN CHANCES

The pattern has been very active in the Canadian Prairies with almost daily showers and thunderstorms at least through the weekend. Some areas have gotten a boost in soil moisture while some areas got further into drought as they have been missed. Drier areas in Manitoba really need the rain, but some of Alberta and Saskatchewan are in really good shape right now. The rainfall could be a little less impressive next week but could get busier again going into early August. For some areas, that would help crop fill, for others, it will probably be too late.

RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front will get a boost this weekend as it moves through southern Brazil with scattered showers. Systems may start to be more frequent, which would be helpful for building soil moisture for winter wheat but could disrupt what remains of the safrinha harvest. Producers are also looking at the beginning of the wet season, which is about two months away.

MILDER AND SHOWERY FOR EUROPE

Scattered showers will continue across central and eastern Europe into next week and even western areas have been getting some occasional showers, too. The rainfall would be beneficial for developing summer crops, but not winter wheat harvest. Temperatures are also trending milder going into the weekend, which will relieve some of the recent heat stress.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

Isolated showers continue across the northern and far western ends of the Black Sea region through the weekend and shift mainly to the far west for next week, largely favorable for the wheat harvest in the south, but not developing corn, which needs rain. Temperatures continue to be above normal, which is also causing stress.

WIDESPREAD DROUGHT REDUCTION SPREADING ACROSS AUSTRALIA

A system is moving through Australia over the next couple of days, following one from earlier this week. Both systems are producing widespread, good rainfall that is helping to ease drought conditions and build soil moisture for vegetative wheat. We could see another system producing widespread rainfall this weekend into early next week as the weather pattern starts to become much more active. Crops are still vegetative, and the rain would be very helpful before they get into their reproductive stages next month.

CENTRAL CHINA DRYING OUT AFTER RECENT RAINS

Some areas of heavy rain fell on parts of the North China Plain earlier this week, helping with the drought situation. But this part of the region is forecast to be drier again through next week, which is still concerning as corn and soybeans go into their reproductive stages. Systems will focus rainfall over southern China and the northeast, an area that is in mostly good condition for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.