Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued good weather in the Corn Belt with some increased heat but good rainfall and limited drought, areas of dryness in Europe and the Black Sea region, and increased rainfall in parts of the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MOSTLY LOWER DROUGHT COVERAGE FOR MIDWEST, HEAT AND RAIN CONTINUE

A front continues to slowly move through the Midwest this week, with multiple disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms that have already led to heavy rainfall in the northwest. Temperatures south of the front are very hot and could cause stress to the areas that are a bit drier. The front will likely stall in the east this weekend with showers continuing there and helping to relieve some of the heat stress and limited drought, which saw mostly declining coverage this week. Another system is likely to bring more showers through next week in a couple of pieces and bring through a round of much milder air that would be the end of the heatwave.

HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Disturbances should move through the Central Plains while the Southern Plains will be largely hot and dry going through next week. A front may be strong enough to bring in some milder air and showers later next week, though that is uncertain; it could stall to the north. A ridge in the region may deflect the effects of that front farther to the east, which would be more harmful. Flash drought will also be possible across the south should showers be absent.

NORTHERN PLAINS SAW HEAVY RAINFALL, CONTINUE TO FORECAST MORE THROUGH NEXT WEK

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms have been and continue to move through the Northern Plains for the rest of this week and probably next week as well. Heavy rain so far has led to a significant increase in soil moisture for developing crops in most areas, though areas that get missed are seeing drought increase. A ridge to the south may increase with time and may force the rainfall to push farther north and east and temperatures to increase. But for now, good growing conditions are expected going into early August.

DELTA ON LOOKOUT FOR SMALL TROPICAL STORM

Isolated showers will remain possible in the Delta through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below normal, but a tropical disturbance moving through the Gulf could produce some heavier rain across the south going into the weekend. Northern areas will continue to have stress with less precipitation. Temperatures will continue to be extremely hot where rain is too sporadic and light. A front may not make it down into the region later next week, but could increase rainfall potential and reduce temperatures anyway.

FEW SHOWERS AND INCREASING HEAT NEXT WEEK FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Temperatures have been milder in the Pacific Northwest this week, but will increase next week. Some small disturbances have brought some showers through the region this week, and more isolated showers will be possible through next week, but that will not be of much help. It continues to be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or other specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING MORE RAIN CHANCES

The pattern has been and continues to be very active across the Canadian Prairies with almost daily showers and thunderstorms are forecast through next week. That may be too late for some areas, but very helpful for others as spring wheat and canola continue into their reproductive stages. Drier areas in Manitoba really need the rain, but some of Alberta and Saskatchewan are in really good shape right now.

RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front is moving through southern Brazil with limited showers on Thursday, but would get a boost from another moving through on Friday through the weekend. Systems may start to be more frequent, which would be helpful for building soil moisture for winter wheat, but could disrupt the remaining safrinha harvest.

MILDER AND SHOWERY FOR EUROPE

Scattered showers will continue across central and eastern Europe into next week and even western areas will see some occasional showers, too. The rainfall would be beneficial for developing summer crops, but not winter wheat harvest. Temperatures are also trending milder going into the weekend, which will relieve some of the heat stress.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

Isolated showers continue across the north and far western ends of the Black Sea region for the rest of this week and shift mainly to the far west for next week. That is largely favorable for the wheat harvest in the south, but not developing corn, which needs rain. Temperatures continue to be above normal, which is also causing stress.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS AUSTRALIA

A system brought areas of moderate to heavy rainfall throughout Australia earlier this week. And another system is moving through the country over the next couple of days to produce more. We could see another system producing widespread rainfall this weekend into early next week as the weather pattern starts to become much more active with more widespread rainfall. The rain should help reduce the drought for much of the country's winter wheat and canola areas. Crops are still vegetative, and the rain would be very helpful before they get into their reproductive stages next month.

CENTRAL CHINA DRYING OUT AFTER RECENT RAINS

Some areas of heavy rain fell on parts of the North China Plain over the weekend and earlier this week, helping with the drought situation. But this part of the region is forecast to be drier again through next week, which is still concerning as corn and soybeans go into their reproductive stages. Systems will focus rainfall over southern China and also the northeast, an area that is in mostly good condition for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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