Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued good weather in the Corn Belt with some increased heat but good rainfall, areas of dryness in Europe and the Black Sea region, and an improved rainfall forecast in the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

RAIN AND HEAT IN THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK AND NEXT

A front continues to slowly move through the Midwest this week, with multiple disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms, especially to the northwest. Temperatures south of the front are very hot and could cause stress to the areas that are a bit drier. The front will likely stall in the east this weekend with showers continuing there and helping to relieve some of the heat stress. Another system is likely to bring more showers through next week and bring through a round of much milder air that would be the end of the heatwave.

HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Disturbances should move through the Central Plains while the Southern Plains get largely hot and dry going into next week. A front may be strong enough to bring in some milder air and showers later next week, though that is uncertain. A ridge in the region may deflect the effects of that front farther to the east, which would be more harmful. Flash drought will also be possible across the south should showers be absent.

NORTHERN PLAINS SEEING NEAR-DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms have been and continue to move through the Northern Plains for the rest of this week and probably next week as well. A ridge to the south may increase with time and may force the rainfall to push farther north and east and temperatures to increase. But for now, good growing conditions are expected going into early August.

DELTA ON LOOKOUT FOR SMALL TROPICAL STORM THIS WEEK

Isolated showers will remain possible in the Delta through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below normal, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. Temperatures will continue to be stressfully hot if rain is too sporadic and light. Another small disturbance moving westward through the Gulf of America this week could become tropical, which could increase the rainfall across the south.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DESPITE SOME SHOWERS

Hot and dry weather has increased drought conditions over much of the Pacific Northwest. Though temperatures are not extremely hot this week, we should see them increasing next week. Some small disturbances have brought some showers through the region this week, and more isolated showers will be possible through the weekend, but that will not be of much help. It continues to be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or other specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING DAILY RAIN CHANCES

The pattern is very active and almost daily showers and thunderstorms are forecast in the Canadian Prairies through next week. That may be too late for some areas, but very helpful for others as spring wheat and canola continue into their reproductive stages. Drier areas in Manitoba really need the rain, but some of Alberta and Saskatchewan are in really good shape right now.

RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front will move through with limited showers across southern Brazil on Wednesday and Thursday, but would get a boost from another moving through on Friday through the weekend. Systems may start to be more frequent, which would be helpful for building soil moisture for winter wheat, but could disrupt the remaining safrinha harvest.

MILDER AND SHOWERY FOR EUROPE

Scattered showers will continue across central and eastern Europe into next week and even western areas will see some occasional showers, too. The rainfall would be beneficial for developing summer crops, but not winter wheat harvest. Temperatures are also trending milder going into the weekend, which will relieve some of the heat stress.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

Isolated showers continue across the northern and far western Black Sea region for the rest of this week and shift mainly to the far west for next week, largely favorable for the wheat harvest in the south, but not developing corn, which needs rain. Temperatures continue to be above normal, which is also causing stress.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS AUSTRALIA

A system brought areas of moderate to heavy rainfall to Australia earlier this week. Another system will move through the country over the next few days and produce more areas of widespread rainfall. We could see another system producing widespread rainfall this weekend into early next week as well. All the rain should help reduce the drought for much of the country's winter wheat and canola areas. Crops are still vegetative, and the rain would be very helpful before they get into their reproductive stages next month.

CENTRAL CHINA DRYING OUT AFTER RECENT RAINS

Some areas of heavy rain fell on parts of the North China Plain over the weekend and earlier this week, helping with the drought situation. This part of the region is forecast to turn drier again though, which is still concerning as corn and soybeans go into their reproductive stages. Systems will focus rainfall over southern China and also the northeast, an area that is in mostly good condition for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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