DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Southeast with a trough in the Northwest and another in northern Canada. Both troughs will send energy over the ridge throughout the week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will slide to the Plains over the weekend and strengthen there while the northern Canada trough sends energy down the ridge and into the Eastern U.S. for next week. The ridge should be a stout feature and may last well into August.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but have some notable differences in where and how much precipitation they produce. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may stall in the eastern Corn Belt this weekend where showers could continue. Another system will move into the Northern Plains this weekend, with scattered showers moving through the Midwest early next week. Another system may build in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains in the middle of next week with scattered showers that would spread through the Corn Belt later in the week. Temperatures should generally be near to above normal, but a burst of milder air may follow behind the late week system, especially in the Midwest.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...115 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW MON...32 AT FOXPARK, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...CINCINNATI, OH 2.47 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Southeast with a trough in the Northwest and another in northern Canada. Both troughs will send energy over the ridge throughout the week. The ridge will slide to the Plains over the weekend and strengthen there while the northern Canada trough sends energy down the ridge and into the Eastern U.S. for next week. The ridge should be a stout feature and may last well into August.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but have some notable differences in where and how much precipitation they produce. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may stall in the eastern Corn Belt this weekend where showers could continue. Another system will move into the Northern Plains this weekend, with scattered showers moving through the Midwest early next week. Another system may build in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains in the middle of next week with scattered showers that would spread through the Corn Belt later in the week. Temperatures should generally be near to above normal, but a burst of milder air may follow behind the late week system, especially in the Midwest.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region this week and probably next week as well. A ridge to the south may increase with time and may force the rainfall to push farther north and east and temperatures to increase. But for now, good growing conditions are expected going into early August.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain developed over Kansas on Monday somewhat unexpectedly. Disturbances should move through the north while the south gets largely hot and dry. A ridge in the region will strengthen this weekend and may push these disturbances north and east next week. Though some isolated showers may form in the High Plains, this would generally cause hotter and drier conditions going into August that may start to have an impact on corn and soybeans. Models are not in complete agreement with this assessment, however.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will slowly move through the region again this week, with multiple disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms, especially to the northwest. Temperatures south of the front are increasing and could cause stress to the areas that are a bit drier. The front could stall in the southeast this weekend with showers continuing there.

Another system is likely to bring more showers through next week as the pattern largely stays active going into early August. We could see temperatures falling behind that system as well, bringing down stress levels.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers went through over the weekend and likely continue for much of the next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. Temperatures will continue to be stressfully hot if rain is too sporadic and light. Another small disturbance moving through the Gulf of America this week could become tropical before moving into the region later this week, which could increase the rainfall across the south.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Hot and dry weather has increased drought conditions over much of the region. Though temperatures are not extremely hot this week, we could see them increasing next week. Some small disturbances could bring some showers through the region this week, but that would not be of much help.

It continues to be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or other specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): The pattern is very active and almost daily showers and thunderstorms are forecast through next week. That may be too late for some areas, but very helpful for others as spring wheat and canola continue into their reproductive stages. Drier areas in Manitoba really need the rain, but some of Alberta and Saskatchewan are in really good shape right now.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will move through with limited showers Wednesday and Thursday, but would get a boost from another moving through on Friday through the weekend. Systems may start to be more frequent, which would be helpful for building soil moisture for winter wheat, but could disrupt the remaining safrinha harvest.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will bring some limited showers Tuesday and Wednesday, but another could bring more Friday and Saturday. Fronts may start to be more frequent going into August, which could benefit vegetative winter wheat, but disrupt the remaining corn harvest.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved into western Europe this weekend with widespread rainfall that was beneficial into Monday. Additional showers will continue there the next few days and spread to the east. Multiple rounds will continue through the weekend and into next week as well. The rainfall would be beneficial for developing summer crops, but not winter wheat harvest.

Temperatures should also trend milder going into the weekend.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved through over the weekend, but focused rainfall largely across the north, with lesser amounts or none for drier areas in the southeast. That largely continues this week as well, favorable for the wheat harvest in the south, but not developing corn, which needs some rain. Temperatures continue to be above normal, which is also causing stress.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought areas of moderate to heavy rainfall in the west over the weekend and then into the east early this week.

Another system will move through the country this week and produce more areas of widespread rainfall. We could see another system producing widespread rainfall this weekend into early next week as well. All the rain should help reduce the drought for much of the country's winter wheat and canola areas.

Crops are still vegetative and the rain would be very helpful before they get into their reproductive stages.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas of heavy rain have fallen on parts of the North China Plain over the weekend and Monday, helping with the drought situation. Additional rain should continue there over the next few days and could cause some localized flooding in some areas, but would help to lessen the drought. However, forecasts turn the area much drier afterward again, focusing rainfall over southern China and also the northeast, an area that is in mostly good condition for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers southwest. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers in Kansas. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, mostly north and west. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers north and west Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.