Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued good weather in the Corn Belt with some increased heat and risks of severe weather, areas of dryness in Europe and the Black Sea region, and an improved rainfall forecast in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

RAIN AND HEAT IN MIDWEST THIS WEEK

Scattered showers and some areas of heavy rain moved through the Midwest over the weekend. That included northern Indiana, which had been too dry. A front will slowly move through the region again this week, with multiple disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms, especially to the northwest. Temperatures south of the front will increase and could cause stress in the areas that are a bit drier. The front could stall in the southeast this weekend with showers continuing there. Another system is likely to bring more showers through next week.

HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Central Plains over the weekend while temperatures increased across the south. This may be the case for much of the week, as disturbances move through the north while the south gets largely hot and dry. A ridge in the region will strengthen this weekend and may push these disturbances northward next week. Though some isolated showers may form in the High Plains, this would generally cause hotter and drier conditions going into August that may start to have an impact on corn and soybeans.

NORTHERN PLAINS SEEING NEAR-DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES

Scattered showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend with some areas of severe weather and heavy rain. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region this week and probably next week as well. A ridge to the south may increase with time and may force the rainfall to push farther north and temperatures to increase. But for now, good growing conditions are expected into early August.

DELTA ON LOOKOUT FOR SMALL TROPICAL STORM THIS WEEK

Isolated showers went through the Delta over the weekend and likely continue for much of the week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below normal, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. Another small disturbance moving through the Gulf of America this week could become tropical before moving into the region later this week, which could increase the rainfall across the south.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DESPITE SOME SHOWERS

Hot and dry weather has increased drought conditions over much of the Pacific Northwest. Though temperatures are not extremely hot this week, we could see them increasing next week. Some small disturbances could bring some showers through the region this week, but that would not be of much help. It continues to be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or other specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING DAILY RAIN CHANCES

Scattered showers moved through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, which were more consistent in Alberta and Saskatchewan than forecast, but much weaker in Manitoba as forecast and where conditions are still drier. However, the pattern is very active and almost daily showers and thunderstorms are forecast through next week. That may be too late for some areas, but very helpful for others.

RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front will move through southern Brazil with limited showers Wednesday and Thursday but would get a boost from another moving through on Friday through the weekend. Systems may start to be more frequent, which would be helpful for building soil moisture for winter wheat, but could disrupt the remaining safrinha harvest.

MILDER AND SHOWERY FOR EUROPE THIS WEEK

A system moved into western Europe this weekend with widespread rainfall. Additional showers will continue there the next few days before spreading to the east as well. Rainfall would be beneficial for developing summer crops but not winter wheat harvest. Temperatures should also trend milder going into the weekend.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

A system moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, but focused rainfall largely across the north, with lesser amounts or none for drier areas in the southeast. That largely continues this week as well, favorable for the wheat harvest in the south, but not developing corn, which needs some rain.

IMPROVING RAINFALL FORECAST IN AUSTRALIA

A system brought areas of moderate to heavy rainfall in western Australia over the weekend. The system should move through eastern areas with more widespread rain early this week. Another system will move through the country this week and produce more areas of widespread rainfall as well. All the rain should help reduce the drought for much of the country's winter wheat and canola areas. Crops are still vegetative and the rain would be very helpful before they get into their reproductive stages.

HEAVY RAIN FELL IN DRIER CENTRAL CHINA

Some areas of heavy rain fell on the North China Plain over the weekend, helping with the drought situation. Additional rain should continue there over the next few days and could cause some localized flooding in some areas but would help to lessen the drought. However, forecasts turn the area much drier afterward again, focusing rainfall over southern China and the northeast, an area that is in mostly good condition for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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