DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Southeast with a trough in the Northwest and another in northern Canada. Both troughs will send energy over the ridge throughout the week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will slide to the Plains by the weekend and strengthen there while the northern Canada trough sends energy down the ridge and into the Eastern U.S. for next week. The ridge should be a stout feature and may last well into August.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but have some notable differences in where and how much precipitation they produce. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may stall in the eastern Corn Belt this weekend where showers could continue. Another system will move into the Northern Plains this weekend, with scattered showers moving through the Midwest early next week. Another system may build in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains in the middle of next week with scattered showers. Temperatures should generally be near to above normal, with the highest anomalies in the Southern Plains.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...117 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW SUN...29 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...DES MOINES, IA 2.23 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Southeast with a trough in the Northwest and another in northern Canada. Both troughs will send energy over the ridge throughout the week. The ridge will slide to the Plains by the weekend and strengthen there while the northern Canada trough sends energy down the ridge and into the Eastern U.S. for next week. The ridge should be a stout feature and may last well into August.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but have some notable differences in where and how much precipitation they produce. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may stall in the eastern Corn Belt this weekend where showers could continue. Another system will move into the Northern Plains this weekend, with scattered showers moving through the Midwest early next week. Another system may build in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains in the middle of next week with scattered showers. Temperatures should generally be near to above normal, with the highest anomalies in the Southern Plains.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers went through over the weekend with some areas of severe weather and heavy rain. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region this week and probably next week as well. A ridge to the south may increase with time and may force the rainfall to push farther north and temperatures to increase. But for now, good growing conditions are expectd going into early August.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through the Central Plains over the weekend while temperatures increased across the south. This may be the case for much of the week, as disturbances move through the north while the south gets largely hot and dry. A ridge in the region will strengthen this weekend and may push these disturbances northward next week. Though some isolated showers may form in the High Plains, this would generally cause hotter and drier conditions going into August that may start to have an impact on corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and some areas of heavy rain moved through over the weekend. That included northern Indiana, which had been too dry. A front will slowly move through the region again this week, with multiple disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms, especially to the northwest. Temperatures south of the front will increase and could cause stress to the areas that are a bit drier. The front could stall in the southeast this weekend with showers continuing there. Another system is likely to bring more showers through next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers went through over the weekend and likely continue for much of the week.

Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. Another small disturbance moving through the Gulf of America this week could become tropical before moving into the region later this week, which could increase the rainfall across the south.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Hot and dry weather has increased drought conditions over much of the region. Though temperatures are not extremely hot this week, we could see them increasing next week. Some small disturbances could bring some showers through the region this week, but that would not be of much help.

It continues to be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or other specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, which were more consistent in Alberta and Saskatchewan than forecast, but much weaker in Manitoba as forecast and where conditions are still drier.

However, the pattern is very active and almost daily showers and thunderstorms are forecast through next week. That may be too late for some areas, but very helpful for others.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will move through with limited showers Wednesday and Thursday, but would get a boost from another moving through on Friday through the weekend. Systems may start to be more frequent, which would be helpful for building soil moisture for winter wheat, but could disrupt the remaining safrinha harvest.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will bring some limited showers Tuesday and Wednesday, but another could bring more Friday and Saturday. Fronts may start to be more frequent going into August, which could benefit vegetative winter wheat, but disrupt the remaining corn harvest.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved into western Europe this weekend with widespread rainfall. Additional showers will continue there the next few days before spreading to the east as well. The rainfall would be beneficial for developing summer crops, but not winter wheat harvest. Temperatures should also trend milder going into the weekend.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved through over the weekend, but focused rainfall largely across the north, with lesser amounts or none for drier areas in the southeast. That largely continues this week as well, favorable for the wheat harvest in the south, but not developing corn, which needs some rain.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought areas of moderate to heavy rainfall in the west over the weekend. The system should move through eastern areas with more widespread rain early this week. Another system will move through the country this week and produce more areas of widespread rainfall as well. All the rain should help reduce the drought for much of the country's winter wheat and canola areas. Crops are still vegetative and the rain would be very helpful before they get into their reproductive stages.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas of heavy rain have fallen on the North China Plain over the weekend, helping with the drought situation. Additional rain should continue there over the next few days and could cause some localized flooding in some areas, but would help to lessen the drought. However, forecasts turn the area much drier afterward again, focusing rainfall over southern China and the northeast, an area that is in mostly good condition for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, especially north.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures above normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Friday, mostly north and west. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers north and west Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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