Canadian Prairies Weather Outlook

Drought continues to be a topic of relevance in the Canadian Prairies. As noted last week, some areas saw worsening drought in June and that continued in some eastern areas for the first half of July. Other areas saw improvements though, and some heavier rain moved through the southern half of Alberta and into southwestern Saskatchewan early this week. That led to more than 25 millimeters (about 1 inch) of rainfall in these areas. But others have seen spotty showers or none at all this week.

That sort of theme will continue through the end of July. The weather pattern is setting up to continue an active weather pattern during the course of the next two weeks. A building ridge to the south and trough to the northeast will mean plenty of disturbances and systems moving through the region. Showers are predicted just about daily by all models in some area of the region through the end of the month. However, the available moisture is not very high. A lot of what occurs will come from the cooler Pacific instead of up from the more moisture-laden U.S. Plains. Showers are more likely to be scattered than consistent. At the same time, the multiple nature to the disturbances could add up to hefty amounts anyway. But trying to guess where thunderstorms will occur more than a couple of days out is a tough task and more likely than not, some areas will get missed or see disappointing rainfall in the active pattern. That is just the nature of thunderstorms.

So, while model forecasts have been putting out nearly 25 mm or more of rainfall over large areas of the region both over the next seven days, and in the eight- to 14-day period, it is hard to trust that it will come true everywhere. And where these storms miss will be important. If they're over the southwestern corner of the region, the effect may not be so bad. But if they are in those drier pockets that exist in the east, then issues with crop development and forage health will be an issue.

The other factor to watch is temperatures. Conditions have been mild to cool this week, which has been less stressful. But that ridge across the U.S. Plains could be building into the region later next week and beyond. That may tend to limit the shower chances as well, which models are not really seeing at the moment. But during this important time for reproduction and early fill, a combination of heat and lack of moisture could turn conditions poorly toward the end of the season.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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