Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued good weather in the Corn Belt but risks of severe weather, and areas of dryness in the Pacific Northwest, Europe, the Black Sea region, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

ROUNDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST

Very few spots in the Midwest are doing poorly with soil moisture as corn and soybeans get deeper into pollination. There are some areas that need rain though, and northern Indiana is the current location to watch the closest. The region stays busy with systems and disturbances continuing showers and thunderstorms across the region through next week. Some of those will come with heavy rain and severe weather, too. Temperatures are milder through the weekend, but should increase next week with a burst of heat stressing out any areas that have not received much rainfall. Overnight lows will be higher, not letting the crop cool off overnight. Otherwise, overall good weather conditions continue in most areas through the end of July.

HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front is stalled in the Central Plains and will produce showers through the weekend, though the coverage will be waning with time and favoring Nebraska. Temperatures have been seasonable, but will be rising this weekend into next week. That will lead to drier conditions across the south, but Nebraska may be close enough to get in on some of the busier pattern across the north. Drying conditions could become hazardous if they last too long.

NORTHERN PLAINS SEEING PLENTY OF RAINFALL CHANCES

A system is moving through the Northern Plains on Friday and more are in the pipeline through next week, keeping the pattern busy with multiple rounds of thunderstorms that could bring heavy rain and severe weather. That may tend to miss some areas as well, but chances are widespread. Temperatures are cooler to seasonable going into next week. Temperatures may rise later next week as the ridge starts to expand northward into the region at the end of July.

SOUTHERN DELTA GETTING HEAVY RAIN, LESS ELSEWHERE

Isolated showers continue across the Delta through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below normal for the most part, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. However, a small disturbance moving through the Gulf of America is bringing some heavy rain into Louisiana on Friday and we may see something similar next week as well.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Hot and dry weather continues to increase drought conditions over much of the Pacific Northwest. Though temperatures are not extremely hot, rainfall continues to be sparse to non-existent and drought will continue to deepen for the rest of the month. That may be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or other specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS

While the weather pattern stays active with more systems through next week across the Canadian Prairies, showers are forecast to stay scattered, leaving some areas too dry and significantly reducing production as more of the wheat and canola crops get into reproductive and filling stages. The driest areas continue to be in Manitoba while better conditions have been noted in much of Alberta and central Saskatchewan.

GOOD HARVEST WEATHER FOR BRAZIL'S SAFRINHA CORN

A front moved through southern Brazil this week with some showers, though coverage and intensity were low. Another could do the same late next week or weekend. Overall, drier conditions have allowed the safrinha harvest to continue and conditions for winter wheat are overall favorable.

NEW SYSTEM FOR EUROPE BRINGING RAIN, REDUCED TEMPERATURES

A system continues over eastern Europe over the next day or two with favorable scattered rain. Those in the west have been much hotter and drier, which has been stressing the end of filling wheat and developing to reproductive corn. A system will bring more favorable rainfall to western countries this weekend into next week. Temperatures should also turn milder after being stressfully hot to close out July.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

A system is bringing scattered showers to western areas of the Black Sea region over the next few days, but leaving southwestern Russia with few chances, which have been much drier throughout the season. Hot and dry conditions there have been favorable for winter wheat dry down and harvest, but not for developing to reproductive corn and sunflowers, which has endured more dry conditions.

RAINFALL FORECAST INCREASING IN AUSTRALIA

The precipitation forecast has increased over Australia with a system moving through Sunday into early next week and with another system moving through late next week. That could help with the drought problem for much of the country's winter wheat and canola outside of the west. Crops are still vegetative and the coming rain would be very helpful should it materialize before they get into their reproductive stages.

CHANCES FOR FLOODING RAINFALL IN DRIER CENTRAL CHINA

Showers have been few and far between on the North China Plain this season. A front may bring more concentrated showers there this weekend into early next week, which may bring some heavy rain and potential flooding. Meanwhile, the northeast continues to have mostly favorable weather for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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