Ag Weather Forum

The year 2025 is becoming the Year of the Flood due to heavy, extreme rainfall events. Since Jan. 1, 2025, 20 states have had at least one storm that produced flash flood warnings from the National Weather Service (NWS). Those warnings have hit a record level. As of July 15, the NWS had issued more than 3,000 flash flood warnings; the highest on record since tracking of flash flood warnings began in 1986.

Flash flooding has been damaging and deadly, topped by flash flooding in the Texas Hill Country on July 3-4, with more than 130 deaths. Rainfall totals include over 12 inches in parts of central Texas; 6-plus inches in the Mid-Atlantic and South Atlantic states; more than 4 inches in south-central Kansas; a reported 7 inches in central Nebraska. These are all single-event totals.

Weather and climate experts identify these events as caused by a warmer atmosphere with greater moisture content and increased energy, along with widespread warmth in the world's oceans, which send in moisture to the U.S. mainland. "Roughly 2/3 of the planet is currently covered by unusually warm oceanic water, which is having an impact on our land areas by making them warmer with potential precipitation extremes," said USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey in an email. "Other than a patch of cool water from near Hawaii northeastward to the Pacific Coast of the U.S. and northwestern Mexico, a lot of the oceans are 'on fire.'"

Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon has studied extreme rainfall events in the southern and southeastern U.S. His research found a definite pattern of more frequent occurrences of heavy rainfall in a single event. "If you look at overall trends across the entire region, run-of-the-mill intense rainfall (the amount you might see five times a decade) had increased in intensity by an average of about 10% over the past several decades," Nielsen-Gammon noted. "Furthermore, very intense rainfall (the amount you might see once or twice a century) had increased in intensity by an average of about 15% over the same period ... intense rainfall is increasing faster than overall rainfall, meaning that rainfall is becoming somewhat more intense and concentrated."

Farming areas of the U.S. are not as prone to the dramatic walls of water that roared through the canyons of the Texas Hill Country. Deep, rich soils can absorb a great deal of moisture. But these heavy rains can still be a challenge. "The changing climate does mean the potential for more of these extreme individual events or a longer stretch of very wet conditions that leads to flooding ... Or if we want to dial the clock back to 1993, we can see a whole season where excessive rain affected lives and livelihoods," said University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension Climatologist Eric Hunt. "So, we are most definitely not out of the woods for having to deal with major floods here."

The more-frequent occurrence of flooding rain -- along with other extreme weather events -- means awareness and being prepared should be top priorities. For producers, "... it just means that everyone needs to be aware of potential weather extremes in all seasons, and to prepare accordingly and however possible," Rippey said.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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