Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued good weather in the Corn Belt, and areas of dryness in the Pacific Northwest, Canadian Prairies, Europe, the Black Sea region, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

ROUNDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST

Very few spots in the Midwest are doing poorly with soil moisture as corn and soybeans get deeper into pollination. There are some areas that need rain though, and northern Indiana is the current location to watch the closest. The region stays busy with systems and disturbances continuing showers and thunderstorms across the region through next week. Some of those will come with heavy rain and severe weather, too. Temperatures are milder through the weekend, but should increase next week with a burst of heat stressing out any areas that have not received much rainfall. Otherwise, good weather conditions continue in most areas through the end of July.

HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front is getting stuck in the Central and Southern Plains and will produce showers through the weekend, though the coverage will be waning with time and favoring Nebraska by the weekend. Temperatures have been seasonable, but will be rising this weekend into next week. That will lead to drier conditions across the south, but Nebraska may be close enough to get in on some of the busier pattern across the north. Drying conditions could become hazardous if they last too long.

NORTHERN PLAINS SEEING PLENTY OF RAINFALL CHANCES

Another system will move through the Northern Plains Thursday night and Friday, and more are in the pipeline through next week, keeping the pattern busy with multiple rounds of thunderstorms that could bring heavy rain and severe weather. That may tend to miss some areas as well, but chances are widespread. Temperatures are cooler to seasonable going into next week. Temperatures may rise later next week as the ridge starts to expand northward into the region at the end of July.

SOUTHERN DELTA GETTING HEAVY RAIN, LESS ELSEWHERE

Isolated showers continue across the Delta through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below normal for the most part, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. However, a small disturbance moving through the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) could bring some heavy rain into Louisiana Thursday and Friday, regardless if it is classified as tropical or not.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Hot and dry weather continues to increase drought conditions over much of the Pacific Northwest. Though the forecast trend has been to keep temperatures from becoming too extremely hot, it has not been to increase the rainfall, and drought will continue to deepen for the rest of the month. That may be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycle.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS

A system brought some good rainfall to much of Alberta and western Saskatchewan earlier this week. While the weather pattern stays active with more systems moving through later this week, weekend, and next week, showers are forecast to stay scattered, leaving some areas too dry and significantly reducing production as more of the wheat and canola crops get into reproductive and filling stages. The driest areas continue to be in Manitoba.

FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Drier conditions over the last two weeks have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across southern Brazil from previous heavy rainfall. A front will move through on Thursday with some showers across the south, though coverage and intensity are forecast to be low. Another could do the same late next week or weekend.

SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER EASTERN EUROPE, NEW SYSTEM FOR WESTERN EUROPE

A system continues over eastern Europe over the next few days with scattered rain. Those in the west have been much hotter and drier, which has been stressing the end of filling wheat and developing to reproductive corn. A system could bring more favorable rainfall and a burst of milder temperatures to western countries this weekend into next week. Otherwise, temperatures will generally stay at or above normal for the next 10 days, even with the systems passing through, stressing some of the drier areas.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR BLACK SEA REGION

A system is bringing scattered showers to western areas of the Black Sea region over the next few days, but leaving southwestern Russia with few chances, which have been much drier. Hot and dry conditions there have been favorable for winter wheat dry down and harvest, but not for developing to reproductive corn, which has endured more dry conditions lately.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA NOT ENOUGH TO QUELL DROUGHT

Limited showers are forecast to move through Australia this week and probably all of next week despite an active weather pattern, missing plenty of areas with too little rainfall. Drought continues to be a problem for much of the country's winter wheat and canola outside of the west. If the dryness continues for another month, it would be more concerning as the crops start to head into their reproductive stages of growth.

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL IN DRIER CENTRAL CHINA

Showers have been few and far between on the North China Plain this season. A front may bring more concentrated showers there this weekend into early next week, which may bring some heavy rain and potential flooding. Meanwhile, the northeast continues to have mostly favorable weather for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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