Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued good weather in the Corn Belt, and areas of dryness in the Pacific Northwest, Canadian Prairies, Europe, the Black Sea region, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

ROUNDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST

Very few spots in the Midwest are doing poorly with soil moisture as corn and soybeans get more into pollination. There are some though, and northern Indiana is the current location to watch the closest. The region stays busy with systems and disturbances continuing showers and thunderstorms across the region through this week and probably next week as well. Temperatures are milder through the weekend, but should increase next week with a burst of heat stressing out any areas that have not received much rainfall. Otherwise, good weather conditions continue in most areas through the end of July.

HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Recent rainfall has been favorable for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans for most of the Central and Southern Plains. A front passing through over the next couple of days will continue to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures continue to be seasonable and non-stressful, but will be rising this weekend into next week. That will lead to drier conditions across the south, but Nebraska may be close enough to get in on some of the busier pattern across the north. Drying conditions could become hazardous if they last too long.

NORTHERN PLAINS GETTING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS

A system produced widespread heavy rainfall and some severe weather over the last couple of days in the Northern Plains, with showers ending here on Wednesday. Another system will move through Thursday night and Friday, and more are in the pipeline for next week, keeping the pattern busy. Temperatures will be generally seasonable, though some much cooler air is in place for the next couple of days. The active weather pattern will bring scattered showers, missing some areas that need some heavier rain, but the pattern is overall favorable for developing crops.

DELTA WATCHING OUT FOR SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL SYSTEM

Isolated showers continue across the Delta through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below normal for the most part, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. The region will also watch the Gulf of Mexico as a small disturbance could become tropical and bring showers into the region on Thursday and Friday across the south.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Hot and dry weather continues to increase drought conditions over much of the Pacific Northwest. That trend is forecast to continue for the next two weeks, helping the winter wheat harvest, but having a significant negative impact on heading spring wheat.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH

A system brought some good rainfall to much of Alberta and western Saskatchewan on Monday. While the weather pattern stays active with more systems moving through later this week, weekend, and next week, showers are forecast to stay scattered, leaving some areas too dry and significantly reducing production as more of the wheat and canola crops get into reproductive and filling stages. The driest areas continue to be in Manitoba.

WEAK FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Drier conditions over the last two weeks have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across southern Brazil from previous heavy rainfall. A front will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with some showers across the south, though coverage and intensity are forecast to be low. Another could do the same about a week later.

ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR EASTERN EUROPE

A system continues in eastern Europe over the next few days with widespread rain. Those in the west have been much hotter and drier, which has been stressing the end of filling wheat and developing to reproductive corn. A system later this week and weekend could bring more favorable rainfall to western countries, but that is not guaranteed. Temperatures will generally stay above normal through the end of July even with the systems passing through, stressing some of the drier areas.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR BLACK SEA REGION

A system moving in from Europe might bring in more showers through the weekend as it slowly moves through the Black Sea region, but models are favoring western and northern areas right now that are in better shape. Continued dryness has been concerning for those areas across the southeast.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA NOT ENOUGH TO QUELL DROUGHT

Limited showers are forecast to move through Australia this week as well as next week despite an active weather pattern, missing plenty of areas with too little rainfall. Drought continues to be a problem for much of the country's winter wheat and canola. If the dryness continues for another month, it would be more concerning as the crops start to head into their reproductive stages of growth.

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL IN DRIER CENTRAL CHINA

Showers have been few and far between on the North China Plain this season. A couple of systems will move through the country this week and weekend, which may bring some showers to these areas, but will favor the northeast, where conditions have been much better for developing corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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