DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and a trough in central Canada. The trough is pushing a disturbance through the northern U.S. for the next couple of days and will bring another through the same areas Friday into the weekend.

Another ridge will develop in the Southeast in a couple of days, shifting west into the Southern Plains this weekend into early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough in central Canada will be reinforced next week, sending energy through the northern half of the U.S., probably through the end of July, while the ridge stays generally stalled out in the Southern Plains.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through Canada early next week with more showers into the northern U.S. We could see another system mid-late next week. Across the South and Southeast, high heat and humidity could produce some isolated showers and thunderstorms, but would be spotty. Seasonable temperatures are forecast across the North-Central, but will probably waffle as systems move through. Southern areas should see temperatures increasing with potential stressful heat building into the Midwest mid-late next week as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...122 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS CA

LOW TUE...32 AT PETER SINKS UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...DAYTONA BEACH, FL 2.17 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and a trough in central Canada. The trough is pushing a disturbance through the northern U.S. for the next couple of days and will bring another through the same areas Friday into the weekend.

Another ridge will develop in the Southeast in a couple of days, shifting west into the Southern Plains this weekend into early next week. The trough in central Canada will be reinforced next week, sending energy through the northern half of the U.S., probably through the end of July, while the ridge stays generally stalled out.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through Canada early next week with more showers into the northern U.S. We could see another system mid-late next week. Across the South and Southeast, high heat and humidity could produce some isolated showers and thunderstorms, but would be spotty. Seasonable temperatures are forecast across the North-Central, but will probably waffle as systems move through. Southern areas should see temperatures increasing with potential stressful heat building into the Midwest mid-late next week as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system produced widespread heavy rainfall and some severe weather over the last couple of days, with showers ending here on Wednesday. Another system will move through Thursday night and Friday and more are in the pipeline for next week, keeping the pattern busy. Temperatures will be generally seasonable, though some much cooler air is in place for the next couple of days. The active weather pattern will bring scattered showers, missing some areas that need some heavier rain, but the pattern is overall favorable for developing crops.

ENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent rainfall has been favorable for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans for most of the region. A front passing through over the next couple of days will continue to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures continue to be seasonable and non-stressful, but will be rising this weekend into next week. That will lead to drier conditions across the south, but Nebraska may be close enough to get in on some of the busier pattern across the north. Drying conditions could become hazardous if they last too long.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Very few spots in the region are doing poorly with soil moisture as corn and soybeans get more into pollination. There are some though, and northern Indiana is the current location to watch the closest. The region stays busy with systems and disturbances continuing showers and thunderstorms across the region through this week and probably next week as well. Temperatures are milder through the weekend, but should increase next week with a burst of heat stressing out any areas that have not received much rainfall. Otherwise, good weather conditions continue in most areas through the end of July.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers continue across the region through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal for the most part, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. The region will also watch the Gulf of Mexico as a small disturbance could become tropical and bring showers into the region on Thursday and Friday across the south.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Hot and dry weather continues to increase drought conditions over much of the region. That trend is forecast to continue for the next two weeks, helping the winter wheat harvest, but having a significant negative impact on heading spring wheat.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought some good rainfall to much of Alberta and western Saskatchewan on Monday. While the weather pattern stays active with more systems moving through later this week, weekend, and next week, showers are forecast to stay scattered, leaving some areas too dry and significantly reducing production as more of the wheat and canola crops get into reproductive and filling stages. The driest areas continue to be in Manitoba.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions over the last two weeks have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across the south from previous heavy rainfall. A front will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with some showers across the south, though coverage and intensity are forecast to be low. Another could do the same about a week later.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front that is moving through the country brought moderate to heavy rainfall in some areas of Buenos Aires on Tuesday, and continues across the north on Wednesday, favorable for building soil moisture for winter wheat. Another front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with more favorable rainfall early next week as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system continues in the east over the next few days with rain. Those in the west have been much hotter and drier, which has been stressing the end of filling wheat and developing to reproductive corn. A system later this week and weekend could bring more favorable rainfall to western countries, but that is not guaranteed. Temperatures will generally stay above normal through the end of July even with the systems passing through, stressing some of the drier areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moving in from Europe might bring in more showers through the weekend as it slowly moves through, but models are favoring western and northern areas right now that are in better shape.

Continued dryness has been concerning for those areas across the southeast.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Limited showers are forecast to move through this week as well as next week despite an active weather pattern, missing plenty of areas with too little rainfall. Drought continues to be a problem for much of the country's winter wheat and canola. If the dryness continues for another month, it would be more concerning as the crops start to head into their reproductive stages of growth.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers have been few and far between on the North China Plain this season. A couple of systems will move through the country this week and weekend, which may bring some showers to these areas, but will favor the northeast, where conditions have been much better for developing corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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