Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued good weather in the Corn Belt, and areas of dryness in the Pacific Northwest, Canadian Prairies, Europe, the Black Sea region, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

WIDESPREAD RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE MIDWEST

Very few spots in the Midwest are doing poorly with soil moisture as corn and soybeans get more into pollination. The region stays busy with systems and disturbances continuing showers and thunderstorms across the region through this week and probably next week as well, as conditions stay overall favorable.

THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING ISOLATED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Recent rainfall has been favorable for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans for most of the Central and Southern Plains. Showers will continue across the southeast for most of the week, while the rest of the region will see scattered showers and thunderstorms with a front passing through over the next couple of days. Temperatures continue to be seasonable and non-stressful. However, much warmer and drier conditions may start to develop next week.

NORTHERN PLAINS GETTING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS

A system is moving through the Northern Plains in a couple of pieces through Wednesday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Though some severe weather may occur, some beneficial heavy rainfall will also occur. Another system will move through late this week, and more are in the pipeline for next week, keeping the pattern busy. Temperatures will be on a rollercoaster, with a big burst of colder air coming over the next couple of days, but then rising again toward the weekend, only to waffle around with systems next week. The active weather pattern will bring scattered showers though, missing some areas that need some heavier rain, but the pattern is overall favorable for developing crops.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE DELTA

Isolated showers continue across the Delta for the next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below normal for the most part, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages. The region will also watch the Gulf of Mexico this week, as a small disturbance there could become tropical and bring showers into the region in a few days. That would bring heavier rainfall to the region should it develop.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Hot and dry conditions have forced drought to increase over much of the Pacific Northwest over the last couple of months. That trend is forecast to continue for the next two weeks, helping the winter wheat harvest, but having a significant negative impact on heading spring wheat.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH

A system moving through the Canadian Prairies brought some good rainfall to much of Alberta and western Saskatchewan on Monday, with showers near the U.S. border on Tuesday. While the weather pattern stays active with more systems moving through later this week and next week, showers are forecast to stay scattered, leaving some areas too dry and significantly reducing production as more of the wheat and canola crops get into reproductive and filling stages. The driest areas continue to be in Manitoba.

WEAK FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Drier conditions over the last two weeks have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across southern Brazil from previous heavy rainfall. A front is likely to move through on Wednesday and Thursday with some showers across the south, though coverage and intensity are forecast to be low.

ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR EASTERN EUROPE

A system will move through Europe over the next few days with rain that favors eastern areas again. Those in the west have been much hotter and drier, which has been stressing the end of filling wheat and developing corn. A system later this week and weekend could bring more favorable rainfall to western countries, but that is not guaranteed. Temperatures will generally stay above normal through the end of July even with the systems passing through, stressing some of the drier areas.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Some limited showers went through northern areas of the Black Sea region over the weekend, but most areas stayed drier. The same will be true for most of this week as temperatures remain above normal. A system moving in from Europe late this week and weekend might bring in more showers, but models are favoring western and northern areas right now. Some continued dryness has been concerning for those areas across the southeast.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA NOT ENOUGH TO QUELL DROUGHT

Limited showers are forecast to move through Australia this week as well as next week, missing plenty of areas with too little rainfall. Drought continues to be a problem for much of the country's winter wheat and canola. If the dryness continues for another month, it would be more concerning as the crops start to head into their reproductive stages of growth.

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL IN DRIER CENTRAL CHINA

Showers have been few and far between on the North China Plain this season. A couple of systems will move through the country this week and weekend, which may bring some showers to these areas, but will favor the northeast, where conditions have been much better for developing corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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